Future alliance with opposition candidates could cut into Park’s lead: observers


The landscape for the presidential race is set for sweeping changes with Seoul National University professor Ahn Cheol-soo appearing ready to join.

While Ahn has been considered a likely presidential candidate ever since he supported Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon in last year’s mayoral by-election, he has avoided announcing his intentions.

However, his new book “Thoughts of Ahn Cheol-soo - The future map that we want of the Republic of Korea,” has been interpreted as being an announcement that he will run for the presidency. The book was released on Thursday, and has seen record sales with more than 11,000 copies shifted within 23 hours of its release.

Although an official announcement has yet to be made, the political arena has been quick to respond to Ahn’s apparent decision.

The Democratic United Party favorite Moon Jae-in welcomed the development saying that he and Ahn shared the opinion that a change in the administration is required.

Hong Sa-duk criticized Ahn, saying “Running for the presidency with just one book is excessive.” Hong is a key aide of Saenuri Party presidential hopeful Park Geun-hye and is heading her campaign. Hong added Ahn’s actions were “not manly” and that the opposition parties appear to be getting tired of the SNU professor.

Park Geun-hye on Friday said of Ahn’s book, “If he has an intention to run (for president) he should make it clear to the citizens.”

Observers said Ahn’s political advance, supplemented with a potential coalition with the opposition candidates, will bring significant changes to the presidential race currently dominated by Park Geun-hye.

“Next week’s TV appearance (of Ahn) will result in a larger gain than loss of supporters. After that I think support for Ahn could rise to as much as 60 percent, in which case it will become a two-way race and break Park’s solo lead,” professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s department of political science and diplomacy said.

Ahn is scheduled to appear on a local television program called Healing Camp on July 23, and is expected to hold a press conference sometime within next week. Presidential hopefuls have often used the famous talk show as platform to widen their public support. Moon Jae-in, for instance, appeared as a guest on the show at the beginning of the year, which led to soaring support ratings. Park Geun-hye’s appearance, however, made no significant change to hers.

According to the opinion poll firm Realmeter, Park’s support rate stood at 39.4 percent on Thursday. In comparison, Moon Jae-in was favored by 19.4 percent of the voters, while Ahn earned 15.9 percent.

“It is possible that Ahn could have a bigger impact if he doesn’t run himself but puts his support behind Moon, which would be more than enough to threaten Park,” said Professor Yang Seung-ham of Yonsei University.

Speculation, despite being denied by Ahn’s associates, has also arisen that he is looking for an individual to head his secretariat in preparation for launching his campaign.

The observers, however, cautioned against assuming the prevalent attention towards Ahn at present would continue into strong support for him down the road.

“About 30 to 35 percent of Ahn’s supporters are moderates and conservatives and the parts of the book that overlap with DUP policies will cause the conservatives to withdraw their support,” Shin said. In his book, which is regarded by some as his manifesto, Ahn outlines his views on economic and social issues, many of which are closer to those of the DUP than the conservative Saenuri Party.

Professor Yang also gave a cautious outlook.

“Ahn is a very important factor but it is unlikely that he will put an end to Park’s dominance as the public opinion is in flux. The closer we get to the election, the more public opinion will shift back as the firm supporters are rarely moved.”

Yang added that Park’s biggest challenge will more likely be posed by herself, such as how she positions herself in interpreting her father and former President Park Chung-hee and his 1961 coup and the 16-year dictatorship.

At a forum held on Monday, she said that her father took the actions he did because circumstances of the time had forced him to “make the best choice” available to him at the time.

Yang said that her comments raised questions about her view of history, and that for those in their 50s and the 60s, who are her staunchest supporters, such views could prove problematic.

Shin agreed and said Park’s viewpoint on history may cost her votes from younger generation.

“This shows an inability to communicate, and if such perception takes hold in those in their 20s and 30s, she cannot win their support.”

By Choi He-suk  (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)