The Korea Herald

피터빈트

N.K.’s talks offer presents dilemma

Seoul turns down Pyongyang’s proposal for military talks calling for denuclearization first

By Yoon Min-sik

Published : May 22, 2016 - 16:47

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South Korea on Saturday immediately snubbed North Korea’s proposal to hold an inter-Korea working-level military meeting, but with a bitter aftertaste.

Observers here said Pyongyang is likely to continue sending overtures for talks as it faces tough sanctions by the international community against its nuclear programs, in a strategic attempt to shift the blame over to Seoul for the protracting standoff.

Pyongyang, on the coattails of holding its first ruling party congress in 36 years, had called for the military talks on Friday and repeated the offer the next day, this time specifying the potential date as late May or early June.
North Korea‘s state broadcaster Korean Central News Agency (Yonhap) North Korea‘s state broadcaster Korean Central News Agency (Yonhap)
On both occasions, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said the proposal “cannot be seen as sincere” as the North has yet to renounce its nuclear program.

“The government (military) remains unchanged in its stance that the North’s denuclearization should be the priority when it comes to dialogue with it,” the ministry said.

The communist state has been working to develop nuclear and ballistic missile programs that resulted in stifling U.N.-led economic sanctions.

Earlier this month at the Workers’ Party of Korea congress, the North’s leader Kim Jong-un vowed to work for the “denuclearization of the world” as a “responsible nuclear-armed state,” and suggested a military meeting with the South. Pundits and government officials here viewed it as a gambit to be recognized as a nuclear-arms state with changed and stronger negotiation power.

The military believes the North has yet to procure the ability to mount a nuclear weapon onto a ballistic missile, a critical step for a developing a nuclear-armed missile.

Observers said that the suggestion has been a common step taken by the North in the past to shift the blame over to the South for stalled talks.

“As we continue to refuse talks without denuclearization, the North will keep stressing the talks. Its intent is to put us on the defensive end in terms of dialogue,” Hong Hyun-ik, a senior researcher at local think tank Sejong Institute, said in a media interview.

Hong pointed out that the message was probably intended for China, who has urged the Koreas to hold peace talks in parallel to the denuclearization process. He added that it also conveyed a conciliatory gesture toward international society.

Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, said the North’s true intent may be to clear the path toward Washington-Pyongyang peace talks.

He said regardless of whether or not Seoul accepts the offer, the North now can justify itself as having at least tried, also seeking to indicate it is in the driver’s seat when it comes to resolving the inter-Korea standoffs.

Some observers suspect that the talks proposal is to spark ideological feud among South Koreans between hard-line conservatives pushing for tougher reprimands and progressives arguing that dialogue must remain open.

Sohn Hak-gyu, a former adviser to the main opposition The Minjoo Party of Korea, said during last week’s visit to Japan that many members of the opposition believe that the accepting Pyongyang as part of the international society and resuming conversation was the best way to change the North.

This presents another dilemma for Seoul government in turning down the North’s proposal, as it is expected to face growing opposition from the newly elected 20th National Assembly, in which the ruling Saenuri Party is now a minority.

Cheong Seong-chang, another researcher at the Sejong Institute, said that Kim’s message of talks appears to be intended for the next administration, not Park herself.

Cheong said that Seoul will have to consider peninsular negotiations to stop the advancement of Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs first, and then pursue denuclearization.

He pointed out that the WPK congress resulted in the power dynamics to shift from military to diplomatic and cabinet officials, indicating that Kim will seek diplomatic solution to dig his country out of isolation.

Koh Yoo Hwan, a professor of North Korean studies at Dongguk University, said the North may continue its “peace offer” while attempting to be recognized as a nuclear-armed state.

Military officials, meanwhile, contended that with the North’s rhetoric, nothing has changed.

The country conducted multiple ballistic missile launches last month, and North Korea monitoring website 38North raised suspicions last week that Pyongyang is continuing its pursuit of submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

North Korea also reiterated its stance that the U.S. and South Korea must cease their annual joint military drills.

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)