With the South Korean government retaining its approach of “denuclearization before talks” against North Korea, nuclear expert John Carlson said that expecting the North to immediately give up nuclear arms would be “totally unrealistic.”

“I think it’s unrealistic to expect denuclearization at the beginning. They just won’t do it, so there’s no point in pushing for it,” Carlson said, while participating in the 11th annual Jeju Forum for Peace and Prosperity held on Jejudo Island.

The Australia-based scholar is currently an advisor on nuclear security for the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and was formerly the director general of the Australian Safeguards and Nonproliferation Office and a member of the advisory board of the International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament.

Earlier in the month, Pyongyang’s ruling Workers’ Party of Korea officially claimed itself to be a nuclear-armed state. Its nuclear and ballistic programs have led to powerful U.N.-led sanctions that encompass a strengthened arms embargo and comprehensive export bans.

“Some 10 to 15 years ago, it might have been possible. But now North Korea has what (nuclear weapons) they think is important to them. They won’t give it up unless they get something better,” he said.

South Korea’s Defense Ministry recently turned down North Korea’s offer for military talks on grounds that denuclearization should be a prerequisite to resuming dialogue, although the legitimacy of the North’s offer is being widely questioned by government officials and observers.

The Seoul government has not specified what level of commitment would constitute “denuclearization” sufficient enough to resume talks. But given the North’s recent nuclear test and speculation of another in the near future, the South has been underscoring that the ball remains in the North’s court to show sincerity.

The South Korean Foreign Ministry has explained that detailing out the guidelines on the desirable denuclearization commitment may be perceived as preconditions for the talks and that the North would be fully aware of what step it needs to take.

While Carlson stressed that it is imperative to keep pressuring the North via sanctions, it is just as important to present them with an alternative route to survival that they seek.

He noted that the North’s Kim Jong-un regime currently feels its survival hangs on acquisition of nuclear strike capacity, and a more realistic option would be to push Pyongyang to first freeze the nuclear and ballistic missile programs and then carry out negotiations for subsequent measures.

“Denuclearization should be at the end of the process,” he said. “Realistically, we’re not going to have regime change anytime soon.”

With Kim stepping up tough rhetoric against Seoul, there have been calls for South Korea to acquire nuclear arms itself.

But Carlson said nuclear armament of South Korea and Japan can only further destabilize the region, stressing that it would not change the North Korean behavior, but may give Pyongyang’s claims of “self-protection through nuclear weapons” some legitimacy.

By Yoon Min-sik(minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)