Last month, Icheon Elementary School in Yangsan, South Gyeongsang Province held a graduation ceremony for only one student. The 13-year-old boy was the sole student to join the school six years ago.

It was a stark reminder of ever-shrinking school-age population in Korea that is set to reshape the education environment across the country.

The Education Ministry is projecting that there will be 160,000 fewer high school graduates than the total number of openings for freshmen in colleges in 2023.

A nationwide reform to reduce the number of university places is underway, and a state-initiated evaluation of each institutes’ reform efforts is slated for August.

“At this rate, there will not be enough high school graduates in the country to fill all the college openings. The ministry is planning to overcome this problem by attracting more foreign students,” said Education Minister Hwang Woo-yea in a recent meeting with reporters. The measures include providing jobs for families of students coming to Korea to study.

But officials at local colleges are saying they are only a stopgap measure, which fails to address the underlying problems. They added that on top of these policies not being mandatary, they require extra budget and a pan-government cooperation which presents yet another challenge.

“We are seeing a drastic drop in the number of students due to a decrease in the school-age population, which we suspect is induced by low fertility rate. The shift in population will have direct impact on education environment as a whole,” said an official from Seoul Metropolitan Office of Education.

Korea’s school-age population ― referring to those aged between 6 and 21 ― accounted for 18.1 percent of the Korea’s 50.4 million population in 2014, according to a joint report by the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family and Statistics Korea. The school-age share of the population has plummeted from 39.1 percent in 1970, and will continue to drop until it reaches 11.1 percent in 2060, the report said.

With the school-aged population shrinking, schools are being closed. Since 1982, 3,596 schools have shut, according to Rep. Kang Eun-hee.

Local news reports showed that 250 elementary, middle and high schools across Korea will have either one or no new recruits in the 2015 school year. While schools in rural parts of the country have had trouble attracting students, a recent tally indicates that Seoul ― the capital and most populous city ― is also suffering from the same issue.

The number of elementary school students in Seoul was 469,000, the lowest figure since authorities started keeping track in 1965, according to the SMOE.

Last year, the SMOE decided to merge Sinheung Elementary School and Heungil Elementary School, both of which had fewer than 400 pupils. While 324 schools were merged across the country from 2009 to 2013, it was the first school merger in Seoul.

“The decrease in school-age population is no longer confined to rural areas, but has expanded to urban areas as well. It seems the number of school closures will continue to grow,” Kang said.

Philip Graham Ryken, president of Wheaton College, said during a recent visit to Korea that the population issue was one of major issues that was discussed during his talks with heads of higher education bodies here.

“I’m surprised to learn how serious population decline in Korea is likely to be, and how much that will affect the well-being of Korean colleges and universities. That’s a much more acute issue here than in the United States,” he said.

Experts have long warned of the problem stemming from the fall in population, said Kim Dong-seok, the spokesperson for the Korea Federation of Teachers’ Association. But improvised solutions without a long-term plan can bring about further problems, he said.

An example would be a “mismatch” between the number of new teachers and the openings due to retiring teachers. Local education offices decide how many teachers to hire in April, but the number of teachers retiring are confirmed by year-end. This is why a year-by-year solution will not work, and a long-term plan is necessary, Kim pointed out.

A further decline in the school-age population will bring changes to how people approach education, said Lee Man-gi, an official from local education firm Uway.

“The overall trend ― of most students feeling like they have to go to college ― is likely to change,” he said.

He added that a shortage in students would affect mostly lower-ranked colleges, but the competition for top-tier colleges will become more intense.

“Education in the country is likely to become polarized. Some people will spend much more money than now on private education, while others won’t spend money on it at all.”

By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)