제8차 방위비 분담 특별협정이 2013년 만료됨에 따라, 한미는 올해 말까지 2014년 그리고 그 이후 적용될 방위분담금관련 협상을 끝내야 한다. 미국의 재정압박으로 인해 대규모 국방비 삭감이 추진되고 있는 상황에서, 앞으로 있을 협상은 그 어느 때 보다 팽팽한 신경전이 펼쳐질 것으로 예상된다.

전문가들은 북한의 핵 미사일 위협이 증가하고 있는 상황에서 강력한 안보동맹을 유지할 수 있고 양측이 “윈윈” 할 수 있는 타협 방안을 신중히 모색해야 한다고 지적했다. 그들은 또한 안보이슈가 다시 한번 정치적, 감정적 소모전이 되지 않도록 해야 한다고 강조했다.

보도에 따르면, 미 행정부는 현재 42 퍼센트의 분담금 비율을 50프로까지 상향조정 해달라고 요청했다고 한다. 전문가들은 일본이 70 퍼센트를 분담하는 것과 비교해, 미국이 일본 수준과 근접하게 올려주기를 원한다고 지적했다.

미국의 신미국안보센터의 아시아지역 담당 수석연구원인 패트릭 크로닌은 협상이 잘 이루어지지 않을 경우 북한 억지력 유지에 문제가 될 수도 있다고 지적하면서, 한미동맹 차원에서 신중하게 접근해야 한다고 지적했다.

한국은 1991년부터 방위비분담금을 지급해왔다. 주로 주한미군이 고용한 한국인에 대한 인건비, 한미연합전력 유지를 위한 군사시설 건설비, 연합방위력 증강사업, 군수지원 등의 분야에 분담금이 쓰인다.

미국 펜타곤에서 지난해 1월 신국방전략을 발표하면서, 전문가들은 이미 분담금 상향조정 가능성해 대비해야 한다고 지적해왔다. 지난 금요일 자로 자동예산 삭감, 이른바 시퀘스터가 발효되면서 분담금 관련 우려는 더 증폭되었다.

일부 전문가들은 한국의 안보상황을 고려해볼 때, 한국이 미국의 분담금 증가요구를 무시할 수 있는 상황은 아니라고 지적했다. 한국은 현재 전시작전통제권 환수, 확장억제 등 여러 안보이슈를 가지고 미국과 협의 중이다. 전문가들은 방위분담금 협상이 이런 논의들을 진행함에 있어 걸림돌이 될 수 있다고 우려했다.

일부는 방위분담금 증가를 긍정적으로 검토하되, 한국이 대신 얻을 수 있는 것들을 고려해야 한다고 주장했다. 그 중 하나는 한미원자력협정 개정과 관련된 것이다. 전문가들은 또한 한국이 글로벌호크 무인 정찰기와 같은 미국제 첨단 무기 도입관련 해서도 미국의 협조를 부탁할 수도 있을 것이라고 주장했다. (코리아 헤럴드/ 송상호 기자)



<관련 영문기사>

Allies face tough burden sharing negotiations

By Song Sang-ho

The negotiations with Washington this year over Seoul’s financial support for the U.S. troops here are expected to be tougher than ever amid America’s budgetary woes and the escalating North Korean threats.

The allies are to start their talks over Seoul’s so-called burden-sharing cost for the upkeep of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea as the current Special Measures Agreement governing it expires at the end of this year.

Experts said the allies should seek a “win-win” solution to ensure the robust alliance to handle missile and nuclear threats by the North, cautioning against the possibility of the crucial security issue descending into an emotional, political war of nerves.

Noting that Washington struggling with its spending cuts to tackle its massive debt could call for a high rise, they also pointed out Seoul should think about what security benefits it could secure in return, should it have to raise its share. Washington has reportedly demanded Seoul increase its share to 50 percent from the current 42 percent. It might ultimately want Seoul to bring up the share closer to the level its staunch ally Japan has agreed to, observers said. Tokyo bears some 70 percent of the cost of basing American troops in the archipelago country.

“Even in good economic times allies haggle over how to share defense burdens, including direct costs. In bad economic times burden-sharing debates can displace strategy,” said Patrick M. Cronin, senior director of the Asia Program at the Center for a New American Security.

The security expert warned that a flip-flop in the forthcoming negotiations over the burden-sharing could undermine the allies’ deterrence efforts against the North’s provocations.

“Alliance managers cannot afford to be distracted from their shared responsibility for preserving security,” he said “North Korea’s unrelenting pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, provocative military threats, and abysmal human rights record will not be halted and may be emboldened by alliance mismanagement.”

Since 1991, Seoul has shouldered the partial costs under the SMA for Korean civilians hired by the USFK; the construction of military facilities to maintain the allies’ readiness; the combined defense improvement project; and other logistical support.

Seoul’s burden-sharing, which was 812.5 billion won ($747 miilion) in 2011 and 836.1 billion won last year, amounts to 869 billion won this year with analysts’ projections for 2014 hovering around 1 trillion won.

Since the Pentagon unveiled its new strategic guidance in January last year, which offers a glimpse into its deficit-driven military strategy, analysts here have warned of the possibility that Washington would step up its call for Seoul to pay more for the USFK.

The across-the-board spending cuts by the U.S. government, known as the “sequester,” which took effect on Friday amid a political standoff, has added to the concerns here that Washington would seek a hike in Seoul’s financial support.

The USFK, the bedrock for the peninsular security, is also to feel the pinch as most of civilian workers could face a furlough -- periods of unpaid leaves -- due to the spending cuts in defense. Some observers expressed concern that the U.S. would scale down its regular training and exercises including combined drills, which could weaken the allies’ combat readiness posture.

Given all these, Seoul is not in a position to just shrug off its key ally’s call for increasing the cost.

“Given the current security situation here, the ball is hardly in our court. We should seek a mutually beneficial solution so that the negotiation process would not get in the way of the alliance’s evolution,” said Kim Yeoul-soo, politics professor at Sungshin Women’s University.

“We are now in talks over the smooth transfer of wartime operational control from the U.S., and should ensure extended deterrence to deal with North Korea’s nuclear threats and make sure that it does not reduce its training due to budget constraints.”

The allies have been in talks over forging a “tailored” deterrence strategy as part of America’s extended deterrence to deal with Pyongyang’s nuclear arms and other weapons of mass destruction.

Seoul may have much to ask for from the U.S. in terms of security. But for the new Park Geun-hye government, raising its burden sharing would be a tough sell to the public and the divided, conflict-laden National Assembly, as it should push for the costly welfare agenda including free childcare services and increased health care for the elderly.

The Seoul administration also faces tough decisions over an array of massive defense acquisition deals including the high-profile project to purchase a high-end fleet of 60 combat aircraft and others to develop an indigenous middle-class fighter and purchase attack helicopters and Global Hawk spy drones.

“Washington might understand South Korea’s situation. Although Korea’s economy has fared relatively well, but uncertainty still lingers. During the negotiations over the cost, the allies would seek a good compromise while trying to understand each other,” said Kwon Tae-young, adviser to the non-profit Korea Research Institute for Strategy.

“But Washington could feel bitter when Seoul only takes (an uncompromising stance), when it has to relay much on it for security reasons and it refuses to join the U.S-led global missile defense program.”

Kim Ho-sup, political science professor at Chung-Ang University, said that Seoul should consider what diplomatic, security benefits it could secure from maintaining a healthy alliance with the U.S.

“In my personal view, maintaining the alliance with the U.S. is South Korea’s crucial national priority. Given that, we could give a positive thought to raising the share, of course, within our capacity,” he said.

“For now, the Park government appears to be perceived as pro-U.S., and this could be a crucial bargaining chip for Seoul. If it doesn’t have friendly ties with Washington, its negotiating leverage could also be limited to a certain extent.”

Should it have to increase its support for the U.S. troops, Seoul should think about what it could gain in exchange for the increase, experts said.

Apart from the burden-sharing talks, another crucial issue facing the alliance would be the upcoming negotiations over the revision to a decades-old nuclear energy pact that bans its Asian ally from reprocessing spent fuel. First signed in 1956 and last revised in 1974, the pact is to expire in March 2014.

Seoul has sought to revise it to allow it to “complete the nuclear cycle” for more efficient use of atomic energy. But Washington has apparently opposed the revision as it can undermine its non-proliferation initiatives.

Kim of Sungshin Women’s University also said that Seoul could demand Washington help it more swiftly acquire high-tech weapons systems such as Global Hawk spy drones.

Seoul has sought to deploy four of the high-altitude unmanned aerial vehicles by 2015 with a budget of 450 billion won. But the asking price jumped, which has clouded the prospect of the acquisition deal. 
(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)