The Korea Herald

소아쌤

Gloomy outlook clouds Korea’s markets

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Published : Aug. 21, 2011 - 19:12

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With jittery investors struggling to glean any hint of reprieve from the deepening global financial woes, the outlook remains gloomy on international fronts, particularly Europe and the U.S., analysts said Sunday.

“By now it is clear that a recession is imminent in the U.S. and Europe. A lot of investments are already driven by fear and such behavior is expected in the Seoul market this week as they continue to fret over debt problems abroad,” Lee Jong-woo, head of research at Solomon Investment & Securities said.

The benchmark KOSPI tumbled 6.22 percent Friday on fresh concern that the world’s major economies will head back to a recession and hurt the trade-dependent economy. Exports account for nearly half of Korea’s gross domestic output, making it more vulnerable to external shocks than economies driven more by domestic demand. KOSPI lost almost 20 percent this month.

Analysts and economists said that Korean markets are likely to fluctuate further as economic outlooks on both sides of the Atlantic remain clouded.

The eurozone economy expanded a mere 0.2 percent in the April-June period from the previous quarter, data showed Friday, disappointing investors desperate for positive economic indicators after debt jitters in the region sent global stocks plunging earlier this month.

Morgan Stanley on Friday said the eurozone will grow by only 1.7 percent this year, down from 2 percent. It said that U.S. growth will also slide to 1.8 percent, backing off from its earlier forecast of 2.6 percent. Disappointing U.S. economic indicators, including Philadelphia’s August business activity index, dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average 3.7 percent Thursday.

“There isn’t much we see for an upturn at this stage, investors are increasingly tapping on safe assets like gold. Stocks will stay quite volatile for the time being,” the Korea Center for International Finance said in a report.

Local brokerages are revising down their earnings forecast for major exporters. FNguide, a financial data provider, said that the combined revenue forecast for 83 listed companies came in at 53.2 trillion won ($48.9 billion) for the second half of this year as of Friday, down 3.52 percent from the figure compiled in July. Samsung Economic Research Institute, a leading private think tank, now predicts the Korean economy to grow by 4 percent, compared to an earlier projection of 4.3 percent, this year.

The Korean won is also expected to extend its losing streak as investors adjust their holdings in favor of safe-haven currencies. The won slid in value for the fourth consecutive week on Friday, the longest retreat since 2010 June. It lost 0.82 percent against the greenback last week, finishing at 1,087.

By Cynthia J. Kim (cynthiak@heraldcorp.com)