The Korea Herald


Analysts forecast quick stock recovery


Published : Aug. 16, 2011 - 19:24

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A group of analysts have predicted that the stock market, hit by the fiscal woes in Europe and the United States, will stabilize in the near future.

They shared the opinion that the possibility of the U.S. economy falling into a double-dip recession is not so high.

“Though the U.S. will experience a slow-paced economic recovery, the possibility of a double-dip recession is low,” an analyst of Woori Investment & Securities said.

He forecast the factors for the country’s possible economic slowdown will ultimately lose momentum.

He said the current situation was different from the period during the 1997 Asian financial crisis or the 2008 global financial crisis. “I think the impact on the real economy from overseas uncertainties will be restrictive.”

An analyst of SK Securities said the premium of the “credit default swap,” a financial derivative product, has moved in a quite stable way compared to figures during the 2008 crisis.

She stressed that the credits risks held by emerging countries, including Korea, from Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating was not high.

KB Investment & Securities analyzed that the recent tumble of the local stock market seemed to be excessive compared with the nation’s economic conditions.

He advised investors to buy stocks when the KOSPI stays below 1,900, saying it was time for the investors to take an aggressive stance in terms of stock purchasing.

But a Daishin Securities analyst said it is necessary for investors to take a wait-and-see position for the time being

“Under the worst scenario, S&P will lower sovereign rating of the U.S. once more and Moody’s also could lower the U.S. rating.”

“Korea’s being picked as the most susceptible country to external factors is a story from the distant past,” a Samsung Securities analyst said.

Though foreign investers have been selling Korean shares, they are also buyers of bonds, he said. “This indicates that they regard the Korean currency as a relatively safe asset.”

A Hyundai Securities analyst compared the situation in 2008, when the nation posted a deficit in its current account balance, with 2011 when the balance enjoyed a surplus.

Government officials also downplayed the growing anxiety among some critics during their news conference ― for foreign media last Thursday.

“While the growth rate of the U.S. stood at 0.4 percent in the first quarter and 1.3 percent in the second quarter, Korea’s exports to the U.S. grew by more than 20 percent during the first half of 2011,” a high ranking official said.

By Kim Yon-se (