After a long wait, the South Korean Constitutional Court removed Yoon Suk Yeol from the presidency in a unanimous decision on April 4. The decision triggered a snap election set for June 3. In the two weeks since, potential candidates have made their intentions clear, and the outlines of the race have formed.
As things stand now, Rep. Lee Jae-myung, the former leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is expected to receive the party’s nomination. After Yoon’s removal, the conservative People Power Party lacks a clear leader. Former Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo has entered the race as has Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo. Both men ran in the 2017 race and lost handily to former President Moon Jae-in. Kim Moon-soo, formerly governor of Gyeonggi Province, and former People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon have also entered the race, but Han faces resistance because of his role in enabling Yoon's impeachment.
All recent head-to-head polls show Lee Jae-myung maintaining at least a 10 percent lead over any of the potential People Power Party nominees. Since January of this year, Lee has continued to expand his lead, and some recent polls show him winning over 50 percent of the vote, with many voters still undecided. The race is clearly his to lose. If he wins over 50 percent of the vote, he would be the first center-left candidate to do so since democratization in 1987, and only the second candidate overall to do so, following Park Geun-hye in 2012.
Lee would also be the first center-left candidate to enter the presidency with a majority of the seats in the National Assembly. The Democratic Party currently holds 170 of the total 300 seats. Former center-left Presidents Kim Dae-jung, Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in all entered the presidency without a majority in the National Assembly, but managed to cobble together a working majority, something Lee Jae-myung would not need to do.
Since 1987, South Korean voters have been wary of giving the president’s party too much power. This could cost the Democratic Party seats in the April 2028 election, but that would still give Lee nearly three years of strong support in the National Assembly.
Entering the presidency with a comfortable victory behind him and a friendly National Assembly in front of him would give Lee Jae-myung a strong mandate to deal with many challenges facing the nation amid rapid geopolitical change.
The first major challenge is addressing the sharp political polarization in the wake of Yoon’s impeachment.
Polls showed that about 35 percent of the people were opposed to impeachment, while 60 percent supported it. In the end, more than 80 percent of the people accepted the Constitutional Court’s verdict, and demonstrations against impeachment faded instantly. This suggests a desire to move beyond political polarization that Lee can draw on.
Polls show Lee getting the weakest support from younger generations and senior citizens. Practical policies that address the economic insecurity of these generations will help broaden Lee's support and help prevent a downward spiral toward the type of extremism seen in other parts of the developed world. He will also need to work to maintain a balance between left-leaning activists and the broad political center within his coalition.
The next major challenge is the turbulent global economic and geopolitical situation. US President Donald Trump's second term has been more disruptive than expected, but the speed of the disruption is slowing. Market forces have pushed back against his tariffs, potentially tipping the US economy into recession. Economic turmoil has stalled his foreign policy initiatives. Since April, Trump’s approval rating has dropped steadily, and Republicans have begun worrying about major losses in next year’s midterm elections.
For Lee Jae-myung, this means he will be dealing with a slowly weakening Trump, which will give him space to look at the long term. As time goes on, Trump 2.0 could look more like an aberration than a new normal. In this situation, Lee should focus on enhancing South Korea’s global position without making controversial moves in the country’s geopolitical stance. In this regard, Lee’s “K-Initiative” focusing on enhancing South Korea’s soft power is a good start. It will help position the country as an open and welcoming place amid the geopolitical turmoil.
But soft power, such as K-pop, has its limits. Strengthening South Korea’s position in applications of artificial intelligence is critical to maintaining the country’s economic competitiveness. With a declining population, for example, the country is in a strong position to take the lead in the development and diffusion of humanoid robots.
Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. -- Ed.
