North Korea shows no signs of immediate provocations following its recent missile launches ahead of US President Donald Trump’s inauguration. Instead, the pro-Russian regime is expected to deploy more troops to Ukraine, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff on Friday.
In a report released Friday morning, the JCS stated that North Korea has shown no activities indicating imminent provocations, apart from conducting seasonal military drills since December.
“North Korea appears focused on domestic goals this year, including celebrating the 80th anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party and completing its five-year economic development plan,” the JCS said. It added that these efforts include missile launches, factory construction, flood recovery and military mobilization for such projects.
While no new launches appear imminent following those on Jan. 6 and 14, the JCS noted that the regime continues preparations for reconnaissance satellite and intercontinental ballistic missile launches, with short-range missiles kept on standby.
The JCS further stated that North Korea is believed to be addressing significant casualties and captured troops from its forces deployed to support Russia’s war in Ukraine while ramping up efforts to send reinforcements.
The report comes ahead of South Korea’s six-day Lunar New Year holiday, which begins Saturday and runs through Thursday.
The JCS noted that while North Korea has not previously carried out provocations on Lunar New Year’s Day, which falls on Wednesday this year, the regime has recently shown a growing tendency to stage surprise provocations around holiday periods.
The JCS added that it is closely monitoring the ongoing dismantling and removal of materials at the Kaesong Industrial Complex, which has been underway since mid-December. Similar activity was observed in 2020, shortly before North Korea unexpectedly demolished the inter-Korean liaison office at the site.
The report also indicated that North Korea is maintaining preparations to launch balloons carrying waste and propaganda materials at any time, with the most recent deployment confirmed in November.
Similarly, low-level GPS jamming near border areas, which has disrupted navigation for South Korean vessels and aircraft, has persisted for three months. Loudspeaker broadcasts along the border, lasting more than 10 hours daily, also remain unchanged but could escalate during the Lunar New Year holidays.
