The Korea Herald

피터빈트

Report foresees 5 percent growth for Korea despite aging population

By 윤민식

Published : Nov. 19, 2013 - 10:04

    • Link copied


South Korea's economy is expected to tide over its aging demographic and post an annual growth of 5 percent down the road on its rising working population, a report showed Tuesday.

"The Asian Tigers were named for their strong growth from the 1960s to the 1990s. But they have slowed down, (as) their last 5-year real gross domestic product (GDP) growth average of nearly 3 percent is a third of the near 9 percent growth average over 1960-1980," said Amlan Roy, a researcher at Credit Suisse.

The term Asian Tigers refers to South Korea, Hong Kong, Singapore and Taiwan.

"They have also changed demographically, (as) they have grown older with lower fertility rates, meaning fewer young to share the aging burden," said Roy. "The solutions lie in holistic structural reform across labor, immigration, taxes, health, education and benefits, to engage workers to work longer beyond mandatory retirement ages and to give equal opportunities to well educated women," Roy added.

South Korea will experience a 0.7 percent increase in the number of laborers between 2010-2015, which hovers far above an average of 0.2 percent tallied among the world's six largest economies, according to Roy.

"We remain positive that with changes on the structural policy front, Asian Tiger economies can achieve consistent, real growth rates upwards of 5 percent."

Senior citizens aged 65 or older made up more than 12 percent of South Korea's population this year, raising concerns that the fast-aging demographic could pose a heavy drag on the country's economy.

The ratio is expected to keep growing in the decades to come.

Those aged 65 or older are forecast to make up 24.3 percent of the total population in 2030, 32.3 percent in 2040 and 37.4 percent in 2050, a separate report by Statistics Korea showed.

The figures imply that South Korea is quickly moving toward an aged society, in which more than 14 percent of the population is 65 or older. The country became an aging society in 2000, when the ratio exceeded 7 percent.

"Deeper capital markets, development of services and planning for longer post-retirement periods are challenges, as well as opportunities for these smaller economies as they face up to their demographic transitions," Roy added.

South Korea's central bank, meanwhile, revised down its 2014 growth forecast for Asia's fourth-largest economy last month to 3.8 percent from its earlier estimate of 4 percent amid lingering economic uncertainty. (Yonhap News)