The year 2012 is going to be a big year for Korean politics, with two major elections ― one in April to pick members of the National Assembly and another in December to elect a new president. The Korea Herald will run a series of articles on what to look for this election year. ― Ed.

Name two most important events in a democracy, and parliamentary and presidential elections are most likely to come to mind.

Korea will have both in 2012.

“It is going to be a pivotal year for Korean politics, with general and presidential elections taking place just eight months apart,” said Jung Hae-gu, a professor at Sungkonghoe University.

Koreans will elect members for its unicameral parliament on April 11 and a successor to President Lee Myung-bak on Dec. 19. It will be the first time since 1992 that the two polls occur in the same year. In Korea, parliamentary elections are held every four years and presidential elections every five.

The looming elections will shape the country’s political landscape for years to come, determining which of the rival forces ― ruling conservatives or the liberal opposition ― will seize power; whether Korea, after years of focus on economic growth, will choose the path toward a welfare nation; and whether young voters will emerge as the driving force behind political change, Jung and other political analysts said.

“After five years under a president who put economic growth above everything, voters want a leader with a vision for greater welfare and measures to tackle the deepening socio-economic polarization of the society,” said Prof. Kang Won-taek of Seoul National University.

“Lee’s growth didn’t lead to more jobs or improvement in livelihood of most ordinary people,” he said.

A new regime in North Korea, apparently led by a 20-something, untested leader, could come into play in election politics, as security issues had in the past, analysts said.

In past elections, North Korean issues worked as a trigger for consolidation of conservative votes, as voters tend to choose the status quo over change when they feel a security threat. South Korea remains technically at war with the communist state, since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with a cease-fire, not a peace treaty. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il died in December, leaving his third son Jong-un in charge of the country with a 1.2 million-strong military and programs to develop nuclear weapons.

From the way things look, the ruling Grand National Party is facing tougher odds in the elections than its liberal rival.

Polls show the conservative party could lose its majority in the National Assembly and the next presidency, amid widespread public disapproval of the incumbent administration of President Lee and an image crisis that it is a corrupt, rigid and old party, representing interests of the rich and privileged.

Rep. Park Geun-hye, the party’s chief since December, had held a solid lead for years over other potential presidential candidates, but she was overtaken in polls in September by Ahn Cheol-soo, a software mogul who is rumored to be harboring presidential ambitions. She is still trailing him in most polls.

Political observers pinpoint Ahn as a key factor in the 2012 elections, as well as the emergence of voters in their 20s and 30s as a key election demographic.

Ahn, founder of antivirus software provider AhnLab, dispelled some rumors about him last month, saying he will not form a new political party or seek a parliamentary seat in April general elections. Yet, he didn’t rule out the possibility of mounting a presidential bid.

News reports earlier this week that he has met several experts on a variety of issues fueled speculation that he may be preparing for the job of running the nation.

Whether or not he decides to join the presidential race, the Ahn Cheol-soo phenomenon is likely to have an impact on both conservatives and liberals, as it reflects the public’s ― particularly the younger generation’s ― aspiration for new politics and fresh faces, observers said.

Prof. Kang explained the popularity of Ahn as a product of public disillusionment with the established politics.

“People are searching for an alternative among non-politicians, out of their deep distrust of existing political parties,” he said.

Kim Chong-in, a former presidential secretary who joined Rep. Park’s leadership team in the GNP, said the Ahn phenomenon is nothing to be afraid of.

“If (the GNP) undergoes ‘creative destruction,’ it can beat him,” he said, referring to the reform campaign led by Rep. Park and the GNP leadership council.

The GNP leadership is struggling to remake the embattled party in order to eke out a victory in the April poll, seen as a litmus test of the public sentiment ahead of the presidential election at the end of the year.

The liberals, for their part, are uniting in order to capitalize on the popular discontent with President Lee and the GNP in the coming elections.

The once-fragmented opposition field has now been realigned into two major groups ― the Democratic Unified Party and the Progressive Unified Party. The DUP was born through a merger of the largest opposition Democratic Party and two other groups, while the PUP is the union of three far-left groups, including the Democratic Labor Party.

By Lee Sun-young (milaya@heraldcorp.com)

What to look for this election year

- Will Ahn Cheol-soo run for president?

- Will Park Geun-hye’s reform of the GNP succeed?

- April’s general elections, a litmus test of public sentiment ahead of the presidential poll

- Welfare, widening income gap, middle-class squeeze likely to be key issues

- Will North Korean factor come into play in elections?

- Impact of SNS and growing clout of young voters