2011년 12월 김정일 사망 이후, 젊고 해외 유학 경험이 있는 새로운 지도자 김정은이 등장하면서 북한내부에 긍정적 변화가 올 것이라는 기대감이 일었다. 하지만 이러한 기대는 북한의 연이은 장거리 로켓 실험, 그리고 최근 3차 핵실험으로 사라지고 있다.

전문가들은 최근 북한이 비핵화 회담 거부, 정전협정 파기 협박을 볼 때, 김정은은 그의 아버지보다 더 모험주의적이고 무모한 정책적 선택을 할 수 있다고 우려했다.

고려대 북한학과 유호열 교수는 “중동이나 아프리카의 일부 지도자들도 유학 경험이 있어도 본국으로 돌아와서는 결국 독재자의 길을 걷게 된다”고 지적하면서 김정은의 해외 체류 경험이 북한의 정책 결정에 크게 영향을 미치지는 않는다고 강조했다.

실제로 김정은은 북한 최고 지도자에 오른 후 최근까지 혼란스럽고 외부세계가 이해하기 힘든 외교적 결정을 해왔다. 2월 미사일 핵실험 모라토리엄 관련 합의를 미국과 맺은 이후에도 장거리 로켓 발사를 하여 국제사회의 비난을 받았다.

북한에 대한 국제적 실망감은 김정은이 미국의 자본주의 문화의 상징인 미키마우스가 등장하는 서양식 공연에 참석하고, 유화적인 모습을 연출하면서 점차 누그러졌다. 하지만 12월 또 장거리 로켓 발사를 하면서 강화된 국제적 제재에 직면하게 되고, 지난 달 3차 핵실험을 감행하여 또다시 국제적 고립을 좌초했다.

전문가들은 김정은의 개인적 성향을 떠나서, 결국 북한의 봉건세습적 정치체제와 구조를 극복하는 것이 쉽지 않을 것이라 지적했다. 허문영 통일연구원 선임연구원은 거의 70년간 굳어진 “봉건, 수령, 공산주의 지배체제의 구조적 한계를 김정은 개인적 역량으로 넘어서지 못하는 모습”이라고 해석했다.

안찬일 세계북한연구센터장은 중국의 변수를 지적했다. 중국이 협조적인 태도를 취하지 않아 미국과 직접 협상하겠다는 강경한 자세로 김정은이 선회하고 있다면서, 김정은은 중국과의 관계를 재정립하는 시도를 하고 있다고 설명했다.



(코리아 헤럴드 송상호 기자)



<관련 영문 기사>



Hopes for foreign-educated N.K. leader remain unfulfilled

By Song Sang-ho

When Kim Jong-un took the helm of North Korea upon his father’s death in December 2011, there was optimism that the Swiss-educated successor would bring about positive change in the impoverished, isolated state.

But that appears to have been wishful thinking and things are worse off now with the international community including its only major ally China supporting harsher sanctions for its recent missile and nuclear tests.

Experts said the fledgling ruler, who came to power after only several years of grooming, could be more adventurous and reckless than his father, as shown in the North’s recent statements that threatened to scrap denuclearization efforts and the armistice agreement.

“It was wrong from the very start to presume that because he studied abroad, Kim would lean toward more open, democratic governance. Many dictators in the Middle East or Africa, who once studied overseas, continued their despotic rule after all,” said Yoo Ho-yeol, a North Korea expert at Korea University.

“Kim came back to the North, received North Korean military education and trained to live as the heir apparent to the dictator. He might have broader horizons, but his overseas experience did not appear to influence the country’s policy direction.”

Last April, Pyongyang provoked Washington by backing out of the so-called Leap Day deal and launching a long-range rocket under the disguise of a satellite launch. Under the deal, the North agreed to put a moratorium on its missile and nuclear tests in return for 240,000 tons of “nutritional assistance.”

Referring to the breach as an indication of “deeper problems,” Christopher Hill, a former U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asia, said in an interview with The Korea Herald, “it does suggest some disarray at the top or some lack of clarity on who does what in North Korea.”

The frustration over the breach of the breakthrough deal slowly subsided with another glimmer of hope for change as the 20-something leader highlighted his interest in Western culture, which his father would have dismissed as an “evil influence.”

To the surprise of many here, the North’s state broadcaster aired a flamboyant performance last July, in which characters symbolizing American capitalist culture such as Mickey Mouse appeared.

But the latest sign of change dissipated as it successfully launched another long-range rocket in December, which invited another U.N. Security Council resolution expanding and strengthening sanctions on the communist state.

Last month, the leadership in Pyongyang conducted a third nuclear test, which thrust it deeper into international isolation. But it bragged about the test, calling it an achievement to strengthen deterrence against U.S. hostility.

Experts said that even though Kim had some desire for reform and openness, it would be difficult to overcome the constraints stemming from the governing structure, based on which the Kim dynasty and ruling elites have maintained their vested interests.

“North Korea has the dynastic, communist and dictatorial ruling system, which has been consolidated over the past nearly seven decades. It appears that Kim’s personal capacity has yet to overcome these structural constraints,” said Huh Moon-young, a senior fellow at the state-run Korea Institute for National Unification.

Huh also pointed out that North Korea’s debilitated economy coupled with the unfavorable external environment contributed to his difficulties in steering the country on the right track.

“The stability of the regime is the foremost task for him, but he could not solve the economic challenges. Instead, he pushed for a nuclear test, which helped strengthen national unity and pretend to achieve (his father’s pledge) to open an era of a strong, prosperous nation,” he said.

“On top of that, as the East Asian order is undergoing some readjustment with the new Tokyo government showing features smacking of its past militarism, the overall external environment was unfavorable for Kim.”

China’s change of stance toward the North could be another factor that influenced Kim’s governing style, experts noted.

As the North continued to launch provocations despite Beijing’s efforts to prevent them, China appeared to have recalibrated its approach to the wayward ally. Earlier this year, Beijing jointed the international condemnation of the North’s rocket launch.

Analysts said that although Beijing might not change its basic policy line toward Pyongyang, it could feel that the North would be a liability in the long-term rather than a “strategic asset” that could serve as a buffer zone amid the increasing Sino-U.S. rivalry.

“I think the recent strong position of the North indicates that it seeks to send a strong message not only to South Korea and the U.S., but also to China,” said Ahn Chan-il, director of the World North Korea Research Center.

“It appears to seek to readjust its relations with Beijing, insinuating that it would no longer rely wholly on China and live in its own way. With its successes in its missile launch and nuclear test, it appears to seek direct negotiations with the U.S., not China.”

(sshluck@heraldcorp.com)