This year, I spent three weeks in Japan, my longest visit to the country in 10 years. I had plenty of time to talk with people to get a sense of where things stand in late 2026. I also spent time visiting bookshops and consuming news from various outlets across the country. The theme running through these conversations and observations is disquiet about the future mixed with guarded optimism. Three topics came up most frequently: geopolitics, artificial intelligence and foreigners.
First, geopolitics. The sudden geopolitical shifts of the 2020s have caught Japan off guard. The United States, its longstanding ally and security guarantor, seems less reliable, but no alternative has emerged to replace it. Donald Trump’s impulsiveness deeply troubles Japan, which values stability and predictability. Japan has a cadre of experts on US affairs, and the consensus among them is that after the midterm elections, Trump will be a wounded lame duck. They expect that, in the face of an emboldened China, the next president will value Japan as a trusted ally more than Trump does.
Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s popularity has fallen below 50 percent in recent polls, suggesting that the buzz surrounding her rise to power in October 2025 has faded. To many voters, she offered hope for a new direction, but many now see her as a continuation of old ways. The slip in her popularity has not sent voters looking for populist solutions on the political left or right. Among advanced democracies, Japan is one of the least polarized politically, and most voters remain deeply suspicious of political extremes.
The vast majority want practical solutions to economic worries. After years of flat or even falling prices, inflation is now an issue in Japan as people, particularly younger generations, feel squeezed by rising prices. There are also worries that a “K-shaped economy” will divide the middle class into winners and losers, eroding the social harmony that Japan values.
Second, AI. The past year has seen rapid adoption of AI throughout Japanese society. There is excitement about its possibilities, particularly as a source of information. Many people are concerned about the changes AI will bring but, given the country’s wariness about political extremes, the sharp polarization over AI seen in the US has yet to emerge.
Instead, there is a broader worry about possible negative uses of AI and the loss of privacy and control over personal information. Many Japanese remain attached to analog media such as paper and handwriting, and some fear that AI will hasten their decline.
Japan is also anxious that it has fallen behind its Asian neighbors in the AI race. Combined with unease about China’s AI prowess, this has raised interest in technological cooperation with South Korea and Taiwan, two neighbors that are ahead of Japan in key parts of the AI race, particularly semiconductors. The rise of South Korea and Taiwan as AI powers has helped change Japan’s view of these countries from receivers of Japanese technology to equal partners in technology development, particularly as a counterweight to China.
Third, the continued increase in the number of foreigners. Interest in headline-grabbing “foreigner issues” has declined since the 2025 upper house election, but the broader issue of how many foreigners to accept and how to integrate them into Japanese society remains salient. Though some outlets chase clicks with negative stories about foreigners, most Japanese people accept foreign residents as an economic necessity in an aging society. The rapid increase in foreigners may be the source of concern rather than the foreigners themselves.
Foreigners, of course, are not just residents but also the large number of tourists from around the world who visit Japan. A visit to Kagoshima on the southern tip of Kyushu showed how foreign tourists are helping the traditional downtown core of the city revive after years of slow decline. Foreigners are now an important consumer group, and many shops and restaurants have signs in English and other languages. This would have been unimaginable 20 years ago when I lived in Kagoshima.
What does the late-2026 mood in Japan mean for the future? The mix of disquiet and optimism suggests a watch-and-wait mode. Decisions in Japan tend to emerge from a consensus that often takes time to build, and the current mood suggests that there is no consensus about where to position Japan for the middle of the 21st century. Until such a consensus emerges, Japan will likely continue to watch a turbulent world carefully from the sidelines.
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Robert J. Fouser
Robert J. Fouser, a former associate professor of Korean language education at Seoul National University, writes on Korea from Providence, Rhode Island. He can be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed here are the writer’s own. — Ed.
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