Lee Kyong-hee
Lee Kyong-hee

After weeks of speculation about renewed engagement between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, another Trump-Kim summit appears unlikely anytime soon. Instead, Trump is preparing for a larger diplomatic spectacle: an unprecedented trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China.

Yet the prospect of renewed diplomacy between Trump and Kim has hardly vanished. The embers are still smoldering. Bruised by a sweeping Democratic victory in the US midterm elections, Trump may increasingly look abroad for a breakthrough that could define his remaining years in office. With conflicts involving Ukraine and Iran unresolved, he may still see a deal with North Korea as a path toward the Nobel Peace Prize he covets.

Kim, for his part, has left the door to dialogue with Washington ajar, even as he has largely ignored Trump’s overtures. Watching the Democrats capture both chambers of Congress, he must now be weighing what he stands to gain — or lose — from another encounter with a president whose political room for maneuver has narrowed.

Trump has repeatedly shown greater warmth toward authoritarian leaders than toward traditional allies. His approach can also seem remarkably indifferent to the anxieties of South Koreans living under North Korea’s growing nuclear threat. In August, he abruptly ordered a substantial reduction in joint US-South Korean military exercises, citing their cost, Seoul’s refusal to support his Iran policy and what he called his “very good relationship with Kim Jong-un.” He described North Korea as “unthreatening and respectful,” a characterization that understandably unsettled many in the South.

Since the Trump-Kim summit in Hanoi collapsed in 2019 over disagreements on the scope of denuclearization and sanctions relief, geopolitical upheavals have strengthened Kim’s bargaining position. His regime survived sanctions and extraordinary isolation due to border closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Its economy has since shown signs of a limited recovery, although ordinary North Koreans continue to bear severe hardships.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought Pyongyang tangible benefits. A once-stagnant relationship with Moscow has evolved into a comprehensive strategic partnership backed by a mutual defense commitment. Kim has dispatched thousands of troops to support Russia’s war effort, along with large quantities of artillery shells and missiles.

In return, North Korea has reportedly received economic support, military assistance and opportunities to gain experience in modern warfare. The closer partnership with Moscow has also altered the diplomatic balance around Pyongyang. China, reluctant to see its neighbor fall entirely into Russia’s orbit, has reasons to maintain its own influence. Beijing’s willingness to pressure North Korea over its nuclear ambitions appears increasingly limited.

China remains by far the North’s largest trading partner and an indispensable economic lifeline. Yet the relationship has never been free of mutual suspicion. Pyongyang resents excessive dependence on Beijing, while China fears instability on its border and any strategic realignment that could diminish its leverage over the Korean Peninsula.

These realities should prompt Kim to reconsider the wisdom of relying so heavily on Moscow and Beijing. Russia’s assistance is tied to a costly war whose course and eventual outcome remain uncertain. Even if Moscow emerges from the conflict intact, its priorities could change. A North Korea that stakes its future on Russian patronage risks finding itself exposed to a harsher environment when circumstances shift.

Reengagement with Washington could provide Kim with another option. A negotiated easing of tensions and sanctions, if accompanied by credible steps on the nuclear issue, would give his country room to diversify its economic relationships. Improved ties with the United States could also help Pyongyang negotiate with Beijing from a less dependent position.

China, however, may not welcome every consequence of such a rapprochement. A more open North Korea with normalized relations with Washington could weaken Beijing’s influence. The possibility of a neighbor following a path reminiscent of Vietnam’s economic opening and expanded US ties may be uncomfortable for Chinese strategists, even if regional stability remains their overriding concern.

Ultimately, the choice rests with Kim. He should remember that previous agreements with Washington have unraveled amid distrust, conflicting expectations and miscalculations on both sides. A fresh opening would require more than another carefully staged encounter between leaders.

An anecdote recounted by former NBA star Dennis Rodman is revealing. Rodman, who visited North Korea repeatedly during Kim’s early years in power, organized an exhibition basketball game in Pyongyang for Kim’s birthday in 2014. According to Rodman’s later account, Kim told him afterward that it was the first time someone had kept a promise to him and his country. The remark, whether literal or rhetorical, speaks to the importance Kim attaches to trust and personal gestures.

Trump’s eagerness to meet Kim, coupled with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung’s conciliatory approach, offers an opening that may not last. Kim should seize it — not merely for another summit photograph, but to begin rebuilding relations with Washington and Seoul, easing his people’s economic isolation and reducing the danger hanging over the peninsula.

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Lee Kyong-hee

Lee Kyong-hee is a former editor-in-chief of The Korea Herald. The views expressed here are the writer's own. — Ed.


khnews@heraldcorp.com