While the South Korea-US alliance remains vital to Washington’s strategic posture of deterring threats from China, it is both an asset and a liability, a US think tank said Thursday.
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace called the decadeslong alliance a "military burden," yet an indispensable part of safeguarding global semiconductor and critical mineral supply chains in its report, “Legacy or Liability? Auditing US Alliances to Compete With China,” released Wednesday.
The report assessed seven key US treaty allies: South Korea, Japan, Australia, the Philippines, France, Germany and the United Kingdom. It evaluated how each contributes to America’s China strategy across military, economic and technological dimensions, weighing their capabilities, political will and the risks of entanglement.
The study concluded that while Japan and Germany align closely with US goals, South Korea presents a more complex picture. Despite its formidable economic and military power, Seoul has been reluctant to use its armed forces to counter Beijing, maintaining instead a “laser focus” on deterring the threat from North Korea, the report said.
That stance, the researchers said, leaves Washington bearing a “substantial military burden” in defending South Korea — an obligation that could draw the US into a conflict with Pyongyang and, by extension, China.
"South Korea has substantial economic and military power, but it has been very reluctant until recently to use its military to counter China, due to its laser-focus on the threat from North Korea," the report noted. “(Seoul) nevertheless requires a major investment of military power from the United States and the alliance could lead to war with North Korea — and by extension China."
Still, the analysts emphasized that the alliance endures not only because of security obligations, but also due to Seoul’s critical role in nonmilitary domains — especially semiconductors and advanced materials essential to US technological power.
South Korea, the world’s second-largest chip producer, is constructing what will become the largest semiconductor manufacturing hub in the world. Along with Japan and Germany, it is central to Washington’s strategy of “friendshoring” supply chains away from China. Both Seoul and Tokyo have realigned portions of their technology industries with US interests following the 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, passing domestic legislation to fortify semiconductor resilience through strategic investment.
Beyond chips, South Korea also produces critical minerals used in advanced batteries and defense technologies, including electronics-grade silicon and high-purity tungsten. The report highlighted the Sangdong mine in Gangwon Province as a soon-to-be major non-Chinese source of tungsten, bolstered by significant US government support.
Carnegie’s analysis painted the South Korea–US partnership as emblematic of the dilemmas confronting American statecraft: an alliance indispensable for deterring threats from China and sustaining global supply chains, yet fraught with asymmetries that could entangle Washington in new conflicts.
Even so, Seoul’s deepening cooperation with Washington and Tokyo marks a subtle but notable shift in its strategic calculus, the report added. “Seoul sees the competition between China and the United States as posing a risk to its economic and other interests, but it has nevertheless taken small steps toward a stronger relationship with Washington and also Japan in response to China’s rise," it said. "In other areas, however, especially semiconductors, it offers far more."
mkjung@heraldcorp.com
