North Korea also expects full-scale ‘Kim Jong-un-style’ renewal to usher in new era under his leadership

The 2025 New Year's Eve numerals are displayed in Times Square, on Dec. 18 in New York.  (AP)
The 2025 New Year's Eve numerals are displayed in Times Square, on Dec. 18 in New York. (AP)

The world stands on the brink of a sweeping era of "renewal," with major powers --including the United States, China, Russia, and even North Korea -- pursuing tactical shifts in domestic and foreign policies to outmaneuver and gain an edge over rivals, according to a Seoul-based think tank's geopolitical outlook for 2025.

The Asan Institute for Policy Studies released its report on the 2025 international geopolitical landscape on Monday. In it, the institute defines renewal as a shift in tactics and methods, not a fundamental overhaul or abandonment of current policies. It describes the renewal as less extensive than reconstruction or innovation but with a greater degree of transformation than maintenance.

“The year 2025 is expected to see major countries competing to undertake renewal efforts to shift the prevailing atmosphere, a trend likely to prompt similar renewal in the foreign strategies of other countries,” read the Korean-language report.

“The key term here is renewal, which refers to pursuing strategies that are more proactive and assertive than existing approaches -- not necessarily escalating or resolving conflicts, but aimed at securing a clear advantage over counterparts.”

On the US, the second-term Trump administration is “expected to adopt a renewal strategy that prioritizes maintaining its global leadership through increased burden-sharing with allies and partners, rather than shouldering the load alone.”

“The lattice structure of strategic partnerships established by the Biden administration with allies is expected to persist but will be reconfigured in a more transactional manner,” according to the report.

The US is likely to maintain its Indo-Pacific focus, but the Trump administration’s "America First" policy will bring a renewed approach. On security, it is expected to emphasize burden-sharing and role-sharing with allies like Japan, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines to secure "escalation dominance" while adopting a more assertive strategy to deter China.

US President-elect Donald Trump speaks during Turning Point's annual AmericaFest 2024 in Phoenix on Sunday. (AFP)
US President-elect Donald Trump speaks during Turning Point's annual AmericaFest 2024 in Phoenix on Sunday. (AFP)

In response, the report noted, “China is expected to renew its approach to the ongoing US-China strategic competition, operating under the assumption that US policies of containment and pressure will continue,” particularly with the Trump administration back in power at the White House.

China simultaneously anticipates dissatisfaction among US allies with the Trump administration's policies to weaken the anti-China coalition forged during the Biden era.

Beijing is therefore likely to position itself as an alternative to the US for countries, including South Korea, focusing on free trade, economic growth and the preservation of international order.

“From China’s perspective, there is ample motivation to leverage its relationship with South Korea as a card to counter the US-led alliances and weaken the close ties between South Korea and the United States amidst the US-China strategic competition,” the report said. “This motivation could further intensify within the broader trend of renewal expected in 2025.”

The report predicts that Russia will "pursue a renewal of the global order for and by the end of the war," with plans to "actively present concrete measures for realizing the concept of multipolarity, while also seeking new shifts in cooperation and alliances."

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (center) waves as he attends a ceremony marking the completion of houses rebuilt after summer floods in North Pyongan Province on Saturday, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day.  (Yonhap)
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (center) waves as he attends a ceremony marking the completion of houses rebuilt after summer floods in North Pyongan Province on Saturday, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. (Yonhap)

North Korea is also anticipated to embark on a comprehensive "Kim Jong-un-style renewal" in 2025, aiming to reshape its domestic and international landscape to solidify Kim's power base while addressing internal unrest and dissent.

“North Korea is expected to carry out a full-scale renewal to declare the official launch of a new era under Kim Jong-un on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea in October 2025 and the (anticipated) 9th Party Congress in January 2026,” the report said.

The report underscores both the opportunities and obstacles Kim faces in ushering in his new era.

North Korea is expected to capitalize on its closer ties with Russia to secure resources, engage with a potential second Trump administration and pursue sanctions relief to bolster Kim Jong-un’s regime.

However, deploying troops to aid Russia's war efforts against Ukraine risks casualties, desertions and internal dissent. Early resolution of the war could also limit compensation from Moscow and increase international pressure on Pyongyang as a “co-belligerent.”

Kim Jong-un will seek to “renew the strategic landscape of Northeast Asia to align with his preferences” by strengthening North Korea's relatively strained ties with China compared to its closer relationship with Russia. The report suggested that the delayed opening of the "New Yalu River Bridge" connecting Dandong and Sinuiju could indicate China's "underlying dissatisfaction" with North Korea.

Ultimately, Kim aims to forge a political and military alignment among Beijing, Mosow and Pyongyang.

"Of course, various variables come into play. One key question is whether Russia will still find North Korea indispensable, as it did in 2024," the report said. "China's stance will also be a critical factor."