Jeolla region key battleground for front-runners Moon, Ahn
South Korea’s five major political groups have completed their primaries, with the People’s Party confirming Ahn Cheol-soo as its presidential standard-bearer Tuesday.
The five candidates will embark on the main race for the presidential office, joining 13 other contenders from minor political groups and independents.
According to the official website of the National Election Commission on Tuesday, a total of 18 have registered their preliminary candidacy for the May 9 election.
Recent surveys point to two leaders in the crowded field: More than 6 out of 10 voters support either liberal Moon Jae-in or centrist Ahn Cheol-soo.
While conservative Hong Joon-pyo has seen his support rating surpass 10 percent, the ratings of the remaining two candidates have remained below 5 percent.
According to the poll released by Jowon C&I on Tuesday, Moon of the Democratic Party of Korea secured the No. 1 position with support of 40.4 percent, followed by Ahn of the People’s Party with 26.1 percent. Hong of the Liberty Korea Party posted 16.1 percent support, Yoo Seong-min recorded 4.9 percent and Sim Sang-jung of the Justice Party was at 4 percent.
Compared to the Realmeter poll unveiled the previous day, the gap between Moon and Ahn has narrowed by about 6 percentage points.
The gap between the two rivals began to narrow after the Constitutional Court confirmed the ouster of former President Park Geun-hye on March 10, when Moon’s support hovered at around 37-40 percent and Ahn’s at 10-12 percent.
Both Jowon C&I and Realmeter polls also asked citizens to select one of the two -- either Moon or Ahn -- on the assumption of a two-way race. Both polls showed that Ahn outpaced Moon by 4-6 percentage points. Ahn was also leading Moon in a survey by the Opinion.
A noteworthy point is that Moon has garnered strong support in Seoul, while Ahn’s support rating in Seoul is similar to his national average.
Liberals like former Presidents Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun beat conservatives by winning majorities in the Seoul metropolitan area and sweeping the overwhelmingly liberal southwest, known as Honam.
This time, voters in the South and North Jeolla provinces hold more significance amid uncertainty over voter sentiment in the so-called Honam region.
Currently, different polls show varying Honam support for Moon and Ahn.
A poll by Research & Research showed that Moon and Ahn recorded 44.1 percent and 37.7 percent, respectively, in a five candidate-based race. In the Opinion’s poll, Ahn outperformed Moon by 49 percent vs. 34 percent in the southwestern region.
“Any contender, who is closely connected with the pro-Park (Geun-hye) faction cannot win in the region,” said Park Sang-byung of Inha University.
His remarks suggest that Ahn’s neck-and-neck rating in Honam would nosedive if he seeks a strategic coalition with conservatives such as Yoo from the Bareun Party or Hong from the Liberty Korea Party.
In the 2016 general election, Moon’s Democratic Party outnumbered the then-ruling Saenuri Party, despite its defeat to Ahn’s People’s Party in Honam.
The difference between 2016 and the upcoming May 9 election is that there is a possibility that a large proportion of conservative voters would vote tactically for the centrist Ahn in a bid to block the more liberal Moon from being elected.
By Kim Yon-se ()
kys@heraldcorp.com
