Seoul should be wary of North's move to exclude South in possible US-NK dialogue

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in a speech to the Supreme People's Assembly on Sunday that there is no reason to avoid dialogue with the US if it stops insisting that his country give up nuclear weapons.

This is an expression of his intention to engage in talks only if denuclearization is off the agenda.

The US administration has made it clear that the goal of its North Korea policy is to denuclearize the country. However, security experts in South Korea and the US have consistently raised concerns about "small deals" between Washington and Pyongyang.

Suppose the US and North Korea come to a compromise in which the North stops developing and test-firing intercontinental ballistic missiles aimed at the continental US. In exchange, Washington could agree to tolerate the North's possession of nuclear weapons. Though their talks may progress, South Korea would then face a situation where it becomes more difficult to cope with North Korea's nuclear threat.

President Lee Jae Myung has proposed a three-phase plan to resolve the issue of North Korea's nuclear weapons. The first stage is a freeze, the second is a reduction and the third is denuclearization or eradication of all remaining nukes.

Lee first alluded to his three-stage road map in an interview with a Japanese daily last month. In another interview with the BBC, he described the freeze as "an interim emergency measure" and "a feasible, realistic alternative."

It is most pressing to stop North Korea from further advancing its nuclear weapons. The North is poised to mass-produce nuclear warheads. Considering the actual necessity to stall its nuclear weapon ability at the present level, there is a point in South Korea buying time through a freeze.

North Korea has incessantly demanded that the international community recognize it as a nuclear power and has also called for nuclear arms-reduction talks.

The South Korean government has not used the term "arms reduction" so far in dealing with the North's nuclear program. To hold nuclear disarmament talks with North Korea means that the country has actually been recognized as a nuclear power.

Under Lee's plan, the North has a better chance of gaining such recognition. It is practically impossible to denuclearize a country completely once it is formally recognized as a nuclear power.

North Korea will demand sanctions relief or complete removal of sanctions in return for a nuclear freeze or nuclear arms reduction.

Once sanctions are lifted, however, Kim would no longer have reason to scrap all nuclear weapons in his country. Rather, if US nuclear deterrence were weakened in reward for the North's disarmament, South Korea's security would be in greater danger.

Moreover, Kim made it clear that he has no intention to accept any offer premised on denuclearization. He said that there is no reason at all to sit face-to-face with South Korea. He also said that he would use nuclear arms without hesitation if an enemy invades his country.

If the North refuses to transition from a freeze to the next phase after getting what it wants, there is no viable means to force the North into following course. It is questionable if Lee's road map views North Korea too naively or unrealistically.

The North has adhered to a strategy of negotiating directly with the US while thoroughly excluding the South. US President Donald Trump must not play into the hands of Kim, who seeks to drive a wedge between Seoul and Washington. That is the way to prevent the North from deviating from the orbit of denuclearization.

President Lee said in a social media post on Sunday that it is subservient to believe South Korea is incapable of a self-reliant defense stance without the help of foreign troops.

In mentioning "foreign troops," Lee seems to have referred to US Forces Korea. The South could fend off North Korean attacks involving conventional weapons, but not nuclear ones. Lee must not trifle with the US troops' presence in Korea and the US alliance. To North Korean nuclear threats, Korea and the US must respond as one team.


khnews@heraldcorp.com