Vice finance minister Lim Ki-geun outlines the government’s revised supplementary budget during a press briefing at the Government Complex Sejong on June 18. (Ministry of Economy and Finance)
Vice finance minister Lim Ki-geun outlines the government’s revised supplementary budget during a press briefing at the Government Complex Sejong on June 18. (Ministry of Economy and Finance)

By the time today’s young Korean adults in their 20s and 30s retire in 2060, each Korean citizen could be carrying a share of the national debt worth about 130 million won ($93,700).

The projection comes from the National Assembly Budget Office, which released its long-term fiscal outlook on Thursday. The report was provided to Rep. Choi Eun-seok of the opposition People Power Party.

NABO’s estimate shows per capita national debt rising more than fivefold from 24.58 million won in 2025, calculated in constant prices. The figure includes both central and local government net debt, based on Statistics Korea’s population projections, economic forecasts and fiscal data.

A citizen's share of the state debt is expected to reach 31.65 million won in 2030, 86.13 million won in 2050, and 201.63 million won by 2072. For Koreans born between 1995 and 2000, the burden around retirement age is forecast to be around 130 million won.

The reason is straightforward. Debt is climbing, but the number of people sharing it is shrinking.

South Korea’s total population is projected to fall from 51.68 million in 2025 to 36.22 million in 2072. Welfare spending will rise sharply as the population ages, widening the managed fiscal balance deficit — a key indicator that excludes social security surpluses — from 85.5 trillion won in 2025 to 270.7 trillion won in 2072.

To cover these deficits, the report warns the government will have to issue more treasury bonds. That means higher debt levels for fewer taxpayers.

Gap with global peers narrowing

Government figures show general government debt passed 1,200 trillion won in 2023. The debt-to-GDP ratio hit 50.7 percent, the first time it has crossed the 50 percent mark.

The International Monetary Fund’s April 2025 Fiscal Monitor predicted the ratio would reach 54.5 percent this year. That would be higher than the average for advanced economies without reserve currencies, estimated at 54.3 percent.

In 2016, Korea’s ratio was 39.1 percent, well below the comparable average of 47.4 percent. The IMF now expects it to rise to 59.2 percent by 2030, the second-largest increase among non-reserve advanced economies after the Czech Republic.


mjh@heraldcorp.com