
It's been over a month since South Korea entered election mode with the Supreme Court confirming the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol on April 4.
This election season, much shorter than usual, feels underwhelming for many South Koreans.
When Kim Moon-soo was finalized as the People Power Party's nominee on May 11, just 22 days remained until the June 3 presidential vote. By that time, his rival Lee Jae-myung had been the Democratic Party of Korea's nominee for almost two weeks.
Political observers, left and right, agree that Lee is riding a favorable tide.
The People Power Party hasn't yet shaken off the shadow of the party's former President Yoon Suk Yeol, who is accountable for the country having a presidential election two years early.
The Democratic Party is campaigning hard on the People Power Party's association with Yoon, who belatedly left the conservative party on Saturday, and the ousted president's martial law decree on Dec. 3, 2024.
The three-week campaign period that began May 12 "should be a sprint, but it feels like a slow marathon," a Democratic Party insider who requested anonymity said. "We don't think there will be many surprises down the road."
No plot twists so far
In most polls, Lee is heavily favored to win. This is a big part of why the Democratic Party's "winning strategy" has been to keep a low profile.
"We can't wait for Election Day to come," said a member of the Democratic Party's leadership, on May 15, speaking to The Korea Herald anonymously. "We're really just counting down the days."
Lee's winning streak hit a stumbling block on May 1 when the Supreme Court overturned a lower court's ruling and found him guilty of violating election laws.
But after the Democratic Party threatened to impeach the top court's justices, the courts one by one announced that Lee's criminal trials would be postponed until after the election.
Lee is now cruising smoothly, freed from the legal troubles that were his biggest weakness.
Unlikable, and yet still leading
While Lee seems to enjoy a steady lead in polls, the Democratic Party candidate is at the same time one of the most "unlikable" politicians in recent memory.
In a May 12-13 poll of 3,000 eligible voters, Lee came atop the favorability list of presidential candidates, but 53 percent still saw him as "unlikable" -- meaningfully higher than the 43 percent who found him "likable." More about the poll by Hankook Research is available on the National Election Commission website.
"Lee has always been a 'love him or hate him' kind of politician," an anonymous Democratic Party insider told The Korea Herald on Wednesday. "Lee already has solid support from his devoted superfans. Lee's test this election will be to win over voters in the middle," he said.
Apathy is more palpable among voters in their 20s and 30s, who are the least partisan demographic. According to Gallup Korea's April 25 survey, political non-affiliation was highest among voters aged 18-29 at 36 percent.
A Seoul resident, 33, who wished to be identified only by his surname Im, said he was "not really looking forward to voting."
"I don't really like Lee, but the People Power Party hasn't given me a reason to vote for their candidate, either," he said.
Gaps closing
As of Monday, with about two weeks left until the election, some of the rosier forecasts within Lee's campaign said the Democratic Party candidate could win more than 50 percent of the votes.
But Kim of the People Power Party appears to be catching up to Lee, who had a head start.
In a poll of 1,003 eligible voters conducted by Kopra and released Wednesday, Kim was behind Lee by five percentage points at 41 percent to 46 percent. In another poll by EveryResearch posted Thursday, out of the 1,000 voters surveyed, Kim had 41.6 percent support and Lee, 46 percent. Details of the polls can be found on the National Election Commission website.
South Korea is 13 days away from the election as of Wednesday.
arin@heraldcorp.com