WASHINGTON -- North Korea's deepening partnership with Russia is a variable that will impact US President Donald Trump's leverage in future diplomacy with Pyongyang, a US expert said Friday, as the reclusive regime's reliance on Moscow has significantly lessened the need for dialogue with the United States.
During a podcast, Sydney Seiler, former intelligence officer at the US National Intelligence Council, made the remarks amid expectations that Trump might seek to revive his personal diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un for peace talks.
"Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un have laid a pathway for a protracted period of not needing to talk to the US and so that really will impact the president's leverage," Seiler said during the podcast hosted by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Seiler then asked a question about what Trump could give Kim, which Pyongyang has not received from the Russian president.
"I can't think of much," he said.
North Korea has relied on Russia for food, fuel, security guarantees and other forms of support as it provided troops, in addition to munitions and weapons, to back Russia's war against Ukraine. The two countries' signing of a "comprehensive strategic partnership" treaty in June underscored their deepening partnership.
The expert pointed out Trump's belief that he can leverage his negotiating finesse to reengage with Pyongyang.
"Trump's own expectations ... I think he believes at the right time, in the right place, he can apply his negotiating skills in a way that can help get at least part of the North Korea issue back on some type of track where we have some interaction with them, we try to develop some influence, we try to address their concerns," Seiler said.
Thus, "now is as good time as any" for the Trump administration to start reengaging with the North, he noted.
Commenting on Trump's description of North Korea as a "nuclear power," Seiler assessed that it might have been meant to signal to Kim that the US would treat him not as a "defeated state," but with respect.
He cast doubts over whether Pyongyang would act differently should a progressive president be picked in South Korea's June 3 presidential election.
"(North Koreans) said so directly that they were fooled by Moon and deceived by Yoon. Frankly, they've given up hope for talking with South Korea," he said, referring to former liberal President Moon Jae-in and former conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol.
"I think for the progressives, they must learn that this is not simply a turning back of the clock to 2018 and 2019. The difficulties in the relationship with North Korea are not the result of the hard-line Yoon administration policy toward the North ... (but) a result of Pyongyang's choices, behaviors and actions."
