This year, North Korea scaled back high-profile military provocations, such as missile launches and satellite tests, conducting far fewer than in previous years.

In their place, the Kim Jong-un regime has resorted to more covert and disruptive tactics along the inter-Korean border -- deploying noise blasts, GPS jamming and sending trash-filled balloons -- marking a significant shift.

The South Korean military attributes this shift to North Korea’s focus on addressing domestic challenges while strengthening military ties with Russia amid Moscow’s ongoing war in Ukraine.

According to a Joint Chiefs of Staff briefing on Monday, North Korea has shifted to low-intensity provocations aimed at achieving dual objectives: severing ties with South Korea and strengthening its alliance with Russia amid constrained resources.

“Following its decision to nullify the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement in November 2023, North Korea has engaged in activities such as GPS jamming, waste balloon launches and loudspeaker propaganda near the border, reflecting Kim Jong-un’s directive to firmly sever ties with South Korea,” according to the JCS.

“These actions coincide with efforts to strengthen military alignment with Russia, including signing a new treaty and deploying troops to support Moscow's war effort.”

Gray-zone tactics

One notable tactic this year has been North Korea’s use of balloons to disperse waste across South Korea. The regime launched over 7,000 balloons on 32 occasions from late May to November, according to the JCS.

While no additional launches have occurred since late November, the JCS has observed signs of continued preparations at multiple launch sites, leaving the possibility of future balloon activities open.

Another significant tactic involves intensified loudspeaker broadcasts targeting South Korean civilians near the border.

Since July, North Korea has operated over 40 loudspeaker systems, broadcasting noise for over 10 hours daily, often during late-night hours. This strategy, aimed at creating dissatisfaction among South Korean residents rather than directly confronting the military, is likely intended to disrupt counter-broadcasts, the JCS explained.

North Korea has also escalated GPS jamming in border areas such as Haeju in South Hwanghae Province and Kaesong in North Hwanghae Province. These activities have caused intermittent signal disruptions affecting South Korean military vessels, civilian aircraft and ships. The JCS assessed that such actions align with broader air defense measures influenced by lessons from drone deployments in recent global conflicts.

Decline in missile launches

North Korea’s missile provocations have markedly declined in 2024. The regime conducted only two intercontinental ballistic missile launches, two intermediate-range ballistic missile launches, five short-range ballistic missile launches, six cruise missile tests, two surface-to-air missile tests and one multiple rocket launcher firing.

This contrasts with 2023, when North Korea launched five ICBMs, 13 SRBMs and six cruise missiles. The peak year of 2022 recorded 42 missile launches. The reduced activity this year reflects a strategic recalibration as North Korea balances domestic and international considerations.

Although North Korea pledged to launch three reconnaissance satellites in 2024, the JCS assessed that such launches are unlikely given the current state of preparations. However, recent signs of solid-fuel missile production and movement suggest the possibility of a hypersonic or intermediate-range missile launch in the near future.

Outlook for 2025

Heading into 2025, North Korea is expected to persist with its “gray zone” provocations, maintaining its strategy of bypassing South Korea to focus on direct engagement with the United States. These efforts are projected to continue until Kim Jong-un achieves his desired strategic environment, the JCS noted.

The regime’s alignment with Russia is anticipated to limit its willingness to escalate tensions with South Korea, given the potential burden of managing an additional front. While no imminent signs of a nuclear test have been detected, the JCS warned that North Korea remains capable of conducting a seventh nuclear test at any time. Its Punggye-ri nuclear test site is reportedly maintained in a ready state, preserving the option for future testing.