The Korea Herald

피터빈트

N. Korea is becoming strategic burden for China: experts

By KH디지털2

Published : March 23, 2016 - 11:59

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North Korea's relentless provocations are putting a dent in China's foreign policy and security initiatives, analysts here said Wednesday, noting Pyongyang is increasingly becoming a "strategic liability" to Beijing.

The communist regime's evolving threats against Seoul and Washington have prompted the allies to seek a stronger missile defense and trilateral cooperation with Tokyo -- developments that could undermine Beijing's pursuit of a "peaceful" rise, the analysts noted.

The reclusive regime's recalcitrance has also reignited the discourse in academia that an unpredictable Pyongyang would, after all, become more of a burden than an asset for Beijing, which is eyeing a global leadership role to promote peace in Asia and beyond.

"Beijing has striven to maintain stability on its periphery along the borders in its pursuit of a sustainable ascent as a major power. But the North's latest nuclear and rocket tests have obviously hurt such efforts and distracted China," said Yang Gab-yong, the head researcher of the Institute of China Studies at Sungkyunkwan University.

"Beijing may think it is galling to have to pay constant heed to the provocations and needlessly lose its energy. Some critics even say China is being used as 'pawns' (in the North's pursuit of political gains)."

Saddled with a slew of domestic challenges, such as its slowing economy, income disparities, regional development gaps and corruption, China has prioritized stability in its neighborhood, including the Korean Peninsula, observers here said.

In tune with this policy stance favoring stability, Beijing has put forward its "peripheral diplomacy" principles of "qin cheng hui rong" -- or amity, sincerity, mutual benefit and inclusiveness in English.

These principles have also been applied to Beijing's policy toward the peninsula as witnessed in its pursuit of enhanced ties with Seoul. But the efforts to court Seoul faltered after the South moved to strengthen missile defense with its security ally the U.S. in response to the North's nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch in February.

China has opposed the allies' missile defense collaboration, which it argues could potentially target it -- a charge dismissed by the allies.

Criticism here over Beijing's "insufficient" efforts to rein in a nuclearizing Pyongyang has also aggravated friction between South Korea and China, giving a boost to the U.S. efforts to deepen its strategic engagement in the Asia-Pacific region, observers said.

Nam Chang-hee, a foreign policy expert at Inha University, said that Pyongyang's latest provocations have undermined Beijing's apparent efforts to "drive a wedge" between Seoul and Washington, and loosen their alliance.

"Through cementing the strategic partnership with the South, China has apparently attempted to undercut the Korea-U.S. alliance.

But things have turned out to be the opposite after Pyongyang's provocations," he said.

"Now the alliance has become closer-knit than before and signs have also emerged of an improvement between Seoul and Tokyo -- a development that would hurt China's foreign policy strategy toward the peninsula and East Asia."

In a broader context of an intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry, Pyongyang's provocative acts have put China at a disadvantage as they have served as a pretext for the U.S. to bolster its military presence on the peninsula and in the adjoining region, analysts said.

Seoul and Washington are currently studying the feasibility of stationing a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense system here, a core element of the U.S.' global multi-layered missile defense program.

The U.S. also plans to deploy some 400 U.S. troops of a combat aviation unit to the South later this summer -- albeit on a rotational basis -- to further discourage North Korean aggression.

The U.S. currently stations some 28,500 troops here, mainly as a deterrent against the North.

A fortified missile defense shield, in particular, is expected to compromise China's efforts to build the so-called anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities, said Kim Yeoul-soo, an international relations professor at Sungshin Women's University.

America's missile defense program has been a centerpiece of its military campaign to offset China's growing A2/AD capabilities that aim to keep any potential hostile forces from approaching its territory during wartime or in a crisis situation.

"North Korea's saber-rattling has created fresh momentum for a strengthening of the U.S.' alliance network to encircle China, which may well pose a challenge to China's A2/AD strategy," Kim explained.

Despite all the challenges coming from the wayward ally, China can hardly consider abandoning it, as its communist neighbor serves as a crucial "buffer" that prevents U.S. forces in the South from approaching the border with China, experts said.

"Should China abandon the North, the North could fall under the strong influence of the South Korea-U.S. alliance, a scenario that Beijing cannot accept in light of its strategic competition with Washington (over regional primacy)," said Kim Han-kwon, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. (Yonhap)