The Pentagon's forthcoming National Defense Strategy, set to be unveiled next month, is expected to press South Korea to take on greater military responsibilities and shoulder a larger share of defense costs, experts said Monday, signaling a possible shift in the alliance under the second Donald Trump administration.
A report released by the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses said the document will likely focus on four priorities: defending the US homeland, bolstering deterrence against China, revitalizing America’s defense industry and strengthening alliances.
“The strategic flexibility of the US Forces Korea and discussions on wartime operational control would lead to an expanded role for the South Korean military on the Korean Peninsula, which in turn naturally brings about discussions on increased defense costs for Seoul,” the report explained.
The projections come as the Trump administration places renewed emphasis on safeguarding the US homeland and countering China’s growing influence.
Beijing’s expanding strike capabilities — now capable of reaching the US mainland — and its continued assertiveness in the South China Sea have heightened pressure on Washington to rely more heavily on forward-deployed forces in the Indo-Pacific region.
In Washington, debate over “alliance modernization” with Seoul has largely centered on four issues: expanding the strategic flexibility of US troops in Korea, boosting South Korea’s own defense capabilities, increasing its military spending and completing the transfer of wartime operational control, or OPCON.
While the report noted that OPCON transfer remains a priority for President Lee Jae Myung’s government in Seoul, it added that interest in the issue in Washington is limited, where it is often seen more as a political question than a military necessity.
By contrast, the Trump administration is expected to push more aggressively on the idea that US Forces Korea should not only serve to deter North Korea, but to contribute to broader security across the Indo-Pacific. That could involve shifts in troop structure, such as expanding mobility, transport and logistics units, rather than reducing overall numbers, the report said. The current troop level of 28,500 could come under fresh scrutiny.
Some in Washington, the report added, may also prefer deploying strategic assets such as nuclear-powered submarines in the region rather than pursuing the politically sensitive redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons.
“Discussions could take place at any time about expanding US Forces Korea’s peacetime mission to include broader Indo-Pacific threats beyond North Korea,” the KIDA wrote.
“If the justification for US Forces Korea’s presence shifts in this way, it may actually lead to greater input of resources and assets. What is needed is a shift in perspective — seeing US strategic flexibility as an opportunity to expand South Korea’s active military role.”
mkjung@heraldcorp.com
