Presidential campaign talk already in the air

Democratic Party of Korea Chair Rep. Lee Jae-myung (center) poses for a selfie with a supporter Friday. (Yonhap)
Democratic Party of Korea Chair Rep. Lee Jae-myung (center) poses for a selfie with a supporter Friday. (Yonhap)

South Korea’s presumptive presidential field is slowly taking shape as President Yoon Suk Yeol, who has been detained over his short-lived martial law declaration on Dec. 3 last year, awaits the Constitutional Court’s impeachment verdict.

While it is still too early to tell how the eight justices on the Constitutional Court, with one of its nine seats vacant, will rule on Yoon’s impeachment, pre-campaign politicking is already in the air.

Democratic Party of Korea leader Rep. Lee Jae-myung, who ran in 2022 and lost by a historically thin margin of 0.78 percentage point to Yoon, once again topped the Gallup Korea poll of presidential preferences.

Lee, who appears well on his way to the top of the Democratic Party’s presidential ticket if he can avoid criminal sentencing before the election, had the support of 31 percent of likely voters in the poll published Friday.

The Democratic Party leader was followed by Yoon’s Labor Minister Kim Moon-soo, at 11 percent, and other conservative figures, including former ruling People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon at 5 percent; Daegu Mayor Hong Joon-pyo at 4 percent; and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon at 3 percent. Cho Kuk, the now-jailed leader of the Democratic Party’s spinoff Rebuilding Korea Party, also made the list with 2 percent support.

Former People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon (The Korea Herald database)
Former People Power Party Chair Han Dong-hoon (The Korea Herald database)

The Gallup Korea poll surveyed 1,000 eligible voters aged 18 and older through phone interviews from Jan. 21-23, with more information available on the National Election Commission website.

Lee has consistently been the dominant presidential candidate-to-be among the Democratic Party’s big guns, despite his legal woes.

In another poll released Friday, Lee was the strong favorite among opposition figures considered potential candidates for president, with 31 percent saying he is their preferred nominee. Gyeonggi Province Gov. Kim Dong-yeon came second at 7 percent, followed by former Prime Minister Kim Boo-kyum and National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-sik at 6 percent each.

That poll by K-stat Research conducted phone interviews with 1,005 voters aged 18 and above from Jan. 21-22. More about the poll can be found on the National Election Commission website.

While not part of the polls that came out Friday, Kim Kyoung-soo, a close political confidant of former President Moon Jae-in, is also rumored to have presidential ambitions in the non-Lee Jae-myung faction of the Democratic Party that could give him an edge in the event Lee is forced to drop out by an impending court ruling.

Lee could lose his eligibility to run for president if the courts uphold a suspended jail sentence handed down in November for election law violations, a ruling that is anticipated to come around late March.

Since Yoon was taken into custody on Jan. 15, Lee has dialed back his rhetoric on the president and the rival People Power Party, apparently looking to lure swing voters outside his usual base, especially in light of his Democratic Party’s unfavorable ratings in the latest polls.

The People Power Party has been gaining on, or even leading the Democratic Party in a recent series of polls, marking a significant reversal from the heavy lean toward the Democratic Party that was seen in December, just after Yoon declared martial law.

Unlike the Democratic Party, which is already rallying around a single frontrunner, Lee, the conservative field is more fluid, with no single potential candidate standing out.

The K-stat Research poll showed a multi-way race, with the top five being Labor Minister Kim, 15 percent; Daegu Mayor Hong, 11 percent; Seoul Mayor Oh, 8 percent; onetime presidential candidate Yoo Seong-min, 7 percent; and former People Power Party leader Han Dong-hoon, 7 percent.