A senior researcher at Hyundai Motor has said that it will take much longer for electric vehicles to become mainstream in the global auto market than industry expectations.

Global institutions including the International Energy Agency recently predicted that eco-friendly cars would secure more than half the global vehicle market share by 2030. 

“The prediction is too optimistic. In order for EVs to become mainstream like smartphones are now, there should be at least more than 100 assembly lines like the one Tesla has now,” said Choi Seo-ho, a senior research engineer at Hyundai Motor’s human factors & devices research team, at the technology seminar held on Friday.

“It may cost more than 400 trillion won ($348 billion) and I don’t think that would be possible within 15 to 20 years,” he added.

More than 300,000 reservations for the Tesla Model 3 electric cars show the potential of the EV market, but the figure is still small compared to 90 million cars sold around the world last year, he said.

Choi also dismissed suggestions that the EV market may be opened sooner by new entrants -- like small tech firms.

“Auto companies carry out innumerable tests to develop one car because even a small error may cause fatal accidents,” he said, adding, “Who would want to use a car made by a small firm at the risk of their life?”

Instead, the opening of the autonomous car market would come before the electric vehicle market, said the engineer, who is now involved in Hyundai’s self-driving car technologies.

“This is because the cost reduction (from the mass production) of semiconductor sensors and software needed for autonomous vehicles is faster than batteries for electric cars,” Choi said.

Hyundai’s driverless taxi is set to hit the road within Hyundai’s 1-square-kilometer research complex in Anyang, Gyeonggi Province, this month.

By Shin Ji-hye 
(shinjh@heraldcorp.com)