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Impeachment vote projections: 222 or 195?

Park’s allies, foes scramble for votes ahead of showdown

By Korea Herald

Published : Dec. 7, 2016 - 17:05

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With only two days left before the historical impeachment vote, President Park Geun-hye’s allies and foes in the parliament went into overdrive on Wednesday trying to secure as many votes as possible.

As of Wednesday afternoon, impeachment proponents put the number of lawmakers favoring the motion at a minimum of 222, while Park supporters put it at a maximum of 195.

The threshold for the parliamentary motion’s passage is 200 votes, or two-thirds of the 300-seat National Assembly.

Rep. Hwang Young-cheul of the ruling Saenuri Party, speaking for a group of more than 40 Saenuri lawmakers which are key to the opposition-led campaign’s success, claimed that at least 35 of the group would vote for the impeachment.

“So far, at least 35 votes have been confirmed (to be in favor of Park’s impeachment),” he said on a radio program.
(Yonhap) (Yonhap)
The lawmaker represents a Saenuri faction called “the non-Parks,” because they are in the gray area between Park’s liberal opponents and staunch loyalists within the ruling party.

Another non-Park key figure spoke of an even higher likelihood of the bill’s passage saying, “At least 50 (non-Park) lawmakers support Park’s impeachment.”

If their predictions turn out to be correct, the opposition-mounted motion to dismiss Park will pass the National Assembly on Friday, opening the way for the country’s second presidential impeachment trial in history.

Three opposition parties and independent lawmakers, united for Park’s ouster, control 172 votes, 28 shy of the required quorum.

Saenuri leaders, rallying behind the embattled president, challenged that, claiming that at least 10 non-Parks had switched sides.

“I doubt many (Saenuri lawmakers) would cast a yes vote, knowing that it could pave the way for the liberal opposition to seize power (in the presidential election),” Yonhap quoted a Saenuri lawmaker as saying. “I think (impeachment will fail) with just 195 votes,” the lawmaker said.

The opposition on Wednesday officially declared a shift into a “24-hour emergency mode,” asking all members to concentrate on the impeachment bill’s passage.

“Tomorrow (Thursday), all Democratic Party lawmakers will pull an all-nighter in a candlelight vigil (inside the National Assembly or elsewhere) for Park’s impeachment,” said Rep. Woo Sang-ho, the floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea.

President Park will “follow due legal procedures” if the National Assembly passes the impeachment bill against her on Friday, a Cheong Wa Dae official said.

The stance, delivered to Saenuri leaders in a meeting a day earlier, indicates Park has no intention to bow out and would rather choose to fight for her job and name at the Constitutional Court.

Local reports said Park may ring Saenuri lawmakers in person in a last-minute effort to evade the impeachment.  

By Lee Sun-young (milaya@heraldcorp.com)