Korea has a one-child policy. It was not created by the government, but imposed by informed parents themselves. It turns out that no matter what the government says, and despite all the conceivable incentive packages, Korean parents choose (and in fact are determined) to have just one child.

Look at the numbers. Korea’s birth rate has been stagnant at around 1.2 children per woman almost for a decade now. What is striking is that this is the period when the government made all-out efforts to boost the birth rate. It is all the more worrying because other low-fertility countries have shown a steady increase in birth rates during the period. People in those countries have responded to their governments’ efforts.

The fear now is whether the one-child pattern is taking root here. Assuming this is a fixed pattern, the total population will shrink to 40 million by 2050 and 25 million by 2100. By 2750 Korea will be extinct.

Looking back, we realize how short-sighted we were. In the 1970s and 1980s, family planning and small family campaigns were the country’s major policy priority. “One child per family is still too many for Korea” was the slogan that I used to hear as a middle school and high school student.

It was not until 1996 that Korea started to worry about its shrinking population and changed its policy. But it was too late: The average birth rate was six children in 1960 but became two in 1980, one of the fastest declines recorded. Now the number has been hovering at around 1.2 for a long time and will not change. None of the measures to stimulate the birth rate have worked. Various initiatives and incentives have failed to result in any meaningful change in the trend.

The drastic decline cannot be attributed to any single cause. If anything, it is the combination of all the unique traits of modern Korea that is to blame. Korea boasts the longest working hours among Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries.

Korean women are near acrobatic when they juggle work and responsibilities at home. Society praises those who put work before family. In newspapers, career profiles of newly appointed high ranking officials are keen to explain how little time they have spent with their families. All these are to blame.

However, the biggest reason as we all know is the cost for education. It is simply too expensive to raise a child in Korea. In a country where elementary school students have to attend private academic institutions until late evening and high school students come home at midnight — all of which eat up a significant portion of household income — parents face a financial hemorrhage for almost 20 years.

Not only that, parents carry immense emotional burden as their children compete in the school environment. The financial and nonfinancial cost is tremendous. Child care vouchers and tax breaks are just a drop in the bucket.

As a consequence, the emerging trend seems to be that a young couple has one child and pours everything they have into the child’s upbringing and education. With their limited income and time, most of them just cannot afford multiple children. The nation’s education system thus imposes an invisible, de facto one-child option. The unwavering number 1.2 reflects this self-imposed one-child choice of young parents in Korea.

Suggestions have been made that reunification with North Korea and increasing immigration will be able to stop population shrinkage. These would certainly help.

But there is no guarantee that the influx of new groups of people will change the core of Korean society when it comes to children’s education. More likely than not, they will also end up joining the fierce competition in schools and academic institutions. Children’s education — at whatever cost — runs in the Korean DNA.

Competition in schools and the high education cost are gradually gnawing at our own presence. Without changes in education, no measure will be able to turn the tide.

Lee Jae-min is a professor of law at Seoul National University. — Ed