The Korea Herald

지나쌤

[Editorial] Transient shock

Boons to Korea: Yen, U.S. rates, oil prices

By 김케빈도현

Published : June 26, 2016 - 17:09

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South Korea’s financial market has faced widening uncertainty from Britain’s decision to leave the European Union. Its stocks and currency, which suffered a sharp drop in value on Friday, are likely to show extraordinary volatility over the next few trading sessions.

There is a possibility that the two main indexes will be further hit by Britons’ majority vote for Brexit.

However, simultaneously, chances are the benchmark KOSPI will bounce back rapidly in the coming weeks. Despite the big external shock and a sort of panic in investor sentiment, there are some positive factors for the local market.

Amid global investors’ strong preference to safety assets, the U.S. dollar gained sharply versus major currencies including the Korean won last Friday, when the U.K. referendum result supported the Brexit.

The Korean won slid 2.58 percent to close at 1,179.9 won per dollar during the session, which is the heaviest daily drop in about five years. Though the local currency may continue to lose, a point is that its irregularly weak position is irrelevant with the fundamental value of the won-denominated assets.

While there are growing worries over capital flight from the local bourse, foreign investors could actively purchase local shares at a bargain with their strong dollars.

A changed situation is that the U.S. Federal Reserve may scrap its plan to raise its base rate this year in consideration of global uncertainty. The scenario will no doubt become a favorable factor for the local bourse.

In addition, Korea could be one of the few beneficiaries from the Japanese yen’s sharp appreciation, alongside the dollar, versus major currencies. This will raise the nation’s export price competitiveness, which will be a boon to both the real economy and stocks.

A fast breakthrough could rather be possible amid a slowdown in the sales of semiconductors, smartphones and automobiles in the overseas market, which are the nation’s three major export engines.

For the domestic economy, the strong dollar will have the effect of restricting gasoline and diesel prices. International crude prices generally move inversely to the value of the U.S. dollar — the only settlement currency of crude products worldwide. Local manufacturers and households had been facing a growing burden from a spike in oil import prices.

Eventually financial indexes will be able to recover their ordinary positions in a short period. As for Korea’s policymakers, their first role should be stabilizing the capital market by tackling groundless rumors and cracking down speculative investors, who try to exploit the expected severe volatility.

On the other hand, mid-and long-term seriousness lies in the further developments in the European continent. The U.K. is a large export destination of many European countries. As the country could inevitably face a deep slowdown for a certain period after an EU exit, a domino effect is projected for the rest of Europe.

The world’s fifth-largest economy’s departure may deal a severe blow to its neighbors including the Netherlands, Belgium and France.

Though Korea’s trading volume with Britain is not significant, the EU takes up more than 10 percent of Korea’s exports.

Korea has to keep vigilant over the coming situation in the continent. The Grexit issue may come under spotlight again according to Greek citizens’ movement. The Grexit feasibility, which has haunted the global market for the past few years, has yet to be extinguished.

The initial countermeasure from the Brussels-based EU after the referendum appears to be favorable in terms of blocking the domino effect by clarifying its resolute manners. EU leaders, determined to preserve their union, are looking for a speedy divorce from Britain after Britons voted to leave the bloc.

The leaders stressed that the departure process should start right away. In addition, Scotland has threatened to leave the U.K. if Brexit is realized.

There are many variables ahead before Brexit can take place in practice. And the majority of English citizens that have initiated the exit scheme, may change their minds in the coming months.

In the context, it is premature for South Korea to consider pushing for a bilateral free trade pact with Britain, as a spinoff deal from the Korea-EU Free Trade Agreement.

At a session of the parliamentary foreign affairs and unification committee, foreign Minister Yun Byung-se told lawmakers that the government would draw up a variety of measures including a South Korea-Britain FTA. His remarks came right after Britons opted to leave the EU.

Korea has 53 major trade partners via FTAs made over the past decade. Its trade policy, which is based on neoliberalism, began in April 2004, when the nation implemented its first treaty with Chile.

So far, there have been positive and negative effects from such bilateral pacts. It is not the blind worship of neoliberalism but the future competitiveness of Korean industries that will guarantee brisk exports and robust GDP growth.

If Brexit becomes reality, talks for fine-tuning or revision of the Korea-EU FTA protocols would be necessary. But there is no need to haste when it comes to Britain.

As of 2015, Britain accounts for just 1.4 percent of Korean exports, while China’s share reached 25 percent, followed by the U.S. with 13 percent, the EU (excluding Britain) with 9.1 percent and Japan with 4.9 percent.

It is certain that global uncertainty has expanded. However, as the nation’s export destination portfolio shows, it is also a certain unblushing if local policymakers seek to attribute Korea’s low GDP growth to Brexit woes.