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N. Korea believed to have conducted latest SLBM test from barge, not submarine
By KH디지털2Published : Jan. 13, 2016 - 09:38
North Korea is believed to have conducted its latest submarine-launched ballistic missile test from a submerged barge, not from a submarine, a U.S. expert said Tuesday, a finding that suggests the North is still many years away from mastering SLBM capabilities.
The December test is the North's third known SLBM test following the first in May and the second in November. Unlike the failed November test, the latest test was once reported as successful. But South Korea later said the North is believed to have manipulated the video of the launch.
"While parts of the video footage of the launch are believed to have been faked, examining the initial stages of this launch, along with satellite imagery of the submarine and support vessels in port two days later, suggests that this test was probably conducted from a submerged barge rather than an actual submarine," John Schilling, a rocket expert, said in a report carried by 38 North.
"With only three known tests reported to date and no successful launches from a submarine, North Korea has a long way to go to develop this system. Initial operational capability of a North Korean ballistic-missile submarine is not expected before 2020," he said.
The expert said that the North's video shows what appeared to be a support vessel standing about 50-100 meters from the missile launch site, which he said would be dangerously close to a submarine operating at shallow depth for a missile launch.
But it would be "just right, and quite necessary, for a submerged barge," he said.
One of the most pressing issues after an SLBM test is to remove or replace the launch canister, which requires a crane, Schilling said. Commercial satellite imagery taken of the North's Sinpo Shipyard just two days after the test shows a crane next to the submersible test barge, not the submarine, he said.
In May, North Korea claimed it successfully carried out an SLBM test underwater, renewing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The North's SLBM capability, if fully developed, would pose a serious threat because its mobile nature would make it very difficult to detect preparations for a launch.
But experts said it was believed not to be a full-scale test, but an "ejection" test conducted in an early stage of developing SLBM capabilities. U.S. officials said the North also exaggerated progress and is many years away from developing an SLBM.
Under U.N. resolutions, the North is banned from any ballistic missile activity. (Yonhap)
The December test is the North's third known SLBM test following the first in May and the second in November. Unlike the failed November test, the latest test was once reported as successful. But South Korea later said the North is believed to have manipulated the video of the launch.
"While parts of the video footage of the launch are believed to have been faked, examining the initial stages of this launch, along with satellite imagery of the submarine and support vessels in port two days later, suggests that this test was probably conducted from a submerged barge rather than an actual submarine," John Schilling, a rocket expert, said in a report carried by 38 North.
"With only three known tests reported to date and no successful launches from a submarine, North Korea has a long way to go to develop this system. Initial operational capability of a North Korean ballistic-missile submarine is not expected before 2020," he said.
The expert said that the North's video shows what appeared to be a support vessel standing about 50-100 meters from the missile launch site, which he said would be dangerously close to a submarine operating at shallow depth for a missile launch.
But it would be "just right, and quite necessary, for a submerged barge," he said.
One of the most pressing issues after an SLBM test is to remove or replace the launch canister, which requires a crane, Schilling said. Commercial satellite imagery taken of the North's Sinpo Shipyard just two days after the test shows a crane next to the submersible test barge, not the submarine, he said.
In May, North Korea claimed it successfully carried out an SLBM test underwater, renewing tensions on the Korean Peninsula. The North's SLBM capability, if fully developed, would pose a serious threat because its mobile nature would make it very difficult to detect preparations for a launch.
But experts said it was believed not to be a full-scale test, but an "ejection" test conducted in an early stage of developing SLBM capabilities. U.S. officials said the North also exaggerated progress and is many years away from developing an SLBM.
Under U.N. resolutions, the North is banned from any ballistic missile activity. (Yonhap)
