The defection of Rep. Ahn Cheol-soo from the New Politics Alliance for Democracy signaled an irrevocable division of the main opposition camp, with only four months remaining to the general elections.

The breakaway of the former cochairman is expected to encourage a number of nonmainstream members to follow suit as early as this week. The new clique is likely to create a new political party, or possibly join hands with already-defected Rep. Chun Jung-bae.

“I have reached the conclusion that change and reform is impossible under the current party system,” said Ahn on Sunday in a press conference announcing his defection.

He also vowed to create a “political group that may achieve a government change.”

The parting of the information technology guru-turned-politician came after his efforts for a leadership shake-up fell through. Ahn had earlier suggested a national convention to choose new party leadership, but Moon rejected the idea, claiming that it would only cause further confusion and division.

Ahn’s departure is to have a spillover effect, especially upon party members based in the Gwangju and Jeolla provinces. The “Honam clique” used to be mainstreamers in the former Democratic Party, but now consider themselves excluded from leadership in the current iteration.

“I plan to defect from the NPAD as early as tomorrow and work with former cochairman Ahn,” said Rep. Moon Byeong-ho, former chief secretary and a close aide to Ahn.

“I expect five to six members to join me within the week, and up to 20 members to follow suit by the end of the year.”

Under current parliamentary law, at least 20 lawmakers are required in order to constitute a valid negotiation body. Also, should it succeed in corralling 20 or more lawmakers, Ahn’s new faction would be able to cast the tie-breaking votes between the ruling Saenuri Party and the NPAD.

Reps. Kim Han-gil and Park Jie-won, former party leader and floor leader, respectively, have not yet announced their stance, but are largely speculated to leave the NPAD once Ahn gives further shape to his political plans.

Rep. Chun Jung-bae, who had defected earlier this year, welcomed Ahn’s decision.

“Today is a new day for the party that we are about to launch,” he said after Ahn’s announcement. The fifth-term lawmaker and former justice minister held a preparatory committee for an incoming liberal party.

What this means for the NPAD is that it will face heightened competition in the April parliamentary elections, especially in the Gwangju and Jeolla regions.

It also indicates that current leader Moon, despite years of struggles, has failed to bring together opposing factions, ranging from old DP big shots and aides to the late President Roh Moo-hyun to reform advocates such as Ahn.

“I will draw up new plans for the party,” said Rep. Moon, shortly after Ahn’s defection announcement.

Moon, who had a unified candidacy with Ahn in the 2012 presidential campaign, has struggled to keep Ahn within the hard-achieved NPAD frame. He made last-ditch efforts at an eleventh-hour meeting with Ahn, hours before his press conference, but his efforts went to naught as Ahn claimed that Moon had “no alternatives to offer.”

By Bae Hyun-jung (tellme@heraldcorp.com)