Tokyo’s 2015 defense white paper is expected to be presented to its Cabinet on Tuesday, drawing keen attention to whether it would repeat its provocative sovereignty claim on South Korea’s easternmost islets of Dokdo.

Over the past decade, the Japanese government has described Dokdo as part of its territory in its annual defense policy paper, triggering seething criticism from South Korea and impeding the efforts to improve bilateral relations.

Last year’s white paper further infuriated Koreans as its Korean-language summary also contained Tokyo’s claim to Dokdo, which is called Takeshima in Japan, for the first time.

Analysts say that Tokyo will include its claim to Dokdo in the document, but it may refrain from using stronger language to assert its sovereignty on the islets in consideration of the 50th anniversary this year of the normalization of the South Korea-Japan relations.

“Given that there are some signs of a thaw in the bilateral relationship, Japan, I believe, could avoid employing particularly tougher, stronger terms to make its claim to Dokdo and further straining ties with Seoul,” said Nam Chang-hee, political science professor at Inha University.

“The crux of this year’s paper will be China’s activities in the South China Sea. But of course, (Japan) will never renounce its claim to Dokdo. Thus, it will likely maintain the same expression it has used to refer to Dokdo, rather than adopting more provocative terms.”

According to the Japanese media, the focal point of this year’s defense white paper will be the security challenges from China that has been increasingly aggressive in its territorial disputes involving the South China Sea.

China has been turning numerous rocks and reefs in the Spratly Islands into artificial islands to construct military bases equipped with naval harbors, airstrips, radar facilities and other equipment, and this is regarded by the U.S. and Japan as a move to ultimately alter the regional status quo.

Kyodo News reported earlier this month that Tokyo’s defense white paper would mention that China has been continuing with “coercive measures” in the South China Sea.

China has asserted its claim to the South China Sea with “the nine-dashed-line” ― a maritime demarcation line that takes in more than 80 percent of the 3.5 million-square-kilometer sea. Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei have engaged in intense maritime territorial squabbles with China.

The Japanese media also said the 2015 white paper would touch on North Korea’s push to develop a nuclear-tipped submarine-launched ballistic missile, describing it as a “seriously destabilizing factor” to escalate tensions on the peninsula.

Observers say that the content regarding Dokdo in the white paper may not seriously damage Korea-Japan relations given that the claim is expected as it has appeared in the paper for the last decade.

Japan incorporated Dokdo as part of its territory in 1905 before colonizing the entire peninsula. Korea has been in effective control of the islets with a small coast guard unit posted there since its liberation in 1945.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)