The Korea Herald

지나쌤

BOK cuts 2015 growth outlook to 2.8 pct

By KH디지털2

Published : July 9, 2015 - 13:15

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South Korea's central bank on Thursday lowered its growth forecast for this year, the second downgrade in three months, citing the fallout from the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome outbreak and sagging exports.

The Bank of Korea cut its 2015 growth estimate to 2.8 percent from 3.1 percent in its latest economic update released every three months. In April, the BOK lowered the outlook to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent.

The central bank estimated the first-half growth at 2.4 percent, with private spending rising 1.7 percent on-year. But exports slumped 1 percent on-year in the January-June period, reflecting slowing outbound shipments that were hindered by unfavorable foreign exchange circumstances and weak global demand.

But the BOK painted a rosy picture for the second half expecting the economy to grow 3.1 percent, with private spending gaining 2 percent and exports jumping 3.9 percent.

BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol attributed the widely expected downward revision to weaker-than-expected growth in the second quarter, when Asia's fourth-largest economy took a hit from the country's first-ever MERS outbreak.

The MERS outbreak, which was first reported in late May, has claimed 35 lives so far, sparking a health scare and dampening consumer spending, which has emerged as an important growth engine amid slumping exports.

The central bank chief also mentioned the ongoing drought as well as sagging exports that drove down growth in the April-June period.

Still, he said the South Korean economy is likely to recover in the current quarter, mentioning monitoring results that have indicated an improvement in consumption.

The BOK, meanwhile, left its consumer price growth outlook for the year unchanged at 0.9 percent. In April, the central bank had sharply slashed the projection from 1.9 percent to 0.9 percent.

Lee said that consumer price is likely to pick up in the second half as the impact of low oil prices fade and prices of agricultural products climb due to the drought. By the fourth quarter, inflation is likely to grow by over 1 percent, he added.

Semiannual figures showed that consumer price, which rose 0.5 percent in the first six months of the year, will grow 1.2 percent in the second half.

Meanwhile, the country's current account surplus was estimated at US$98 billion this year, up from a previous forecast of $96 billion.

South Korea has built up a sturdy current account surplus, with the current account surplus hitting a record 39th straight month in May. (Yonhap)