South Korea is struggling to bring North Korea to the dialogue table with the communist regime shrugging off the mounting denuclearization calls and shifting the blame to Seoul and Washington for escalating military tensions.

The North’s evolving nuclear technologies including one to develop a submarine-launched ballistic missile have galvanized Seoul into employing a more active diplomacy. Yet the prospects of dialogue remain bleak as Pyongyang refuses to talk about its nuclear program, a critical tool for regime survival and national security.

Seoul, along with Washington and Tokyo, recently accelerated its push to strengthen pressure and sanctions against the reclusive regime, as Seoul officials said there were no other viable means to induce the North to engage in talks.

But doubts linger over whether applying additional pressure to the North would help create momentum for talks with the North. Analysts pointed out the North’s unwillingness to renounce its nuclear ambitions.

“North Korean leader Kim Jong-un regards nuclear arms and the development of what the country calls a satellite and SLBM as symbols of self-reliance and self-dignity,” said Chang Yong-seok, a senior analyst at Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification Studies.

“The symbols will be further emphasized ahead of the 70th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party (in October).”

As part of its efforts to resume talks with its wayward neighbor, Seoul has been seeking “exploratory dialogue” with Pyongyang, arguing there should be no preconditions for the new form of dialogue, which could lead to in-depth discussions for the resumption of the long-stalled six-party talks involving the two Koreas, the U.S. China, Japan and Russia.

Previously, Seoul and Washington demanded that Pyongyang first show “sincerity” in its denuclearization commitments before the resumption of the multilateral talks, which have been stalled since December 2008.

But the North has so far rejected the invitation for exploratory talks.

“Pyongyang is still opposed to our proposal for exploratory talks even though we have removed all barriers for the talks. This leaves us no option but to raise pressure on the North to come out for dialogue,” a senior Seoul official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

The pursuit of exploratory talks with Pyongyang came as the North has steadfastly enhanced its nuclear weapons capabilities. The North has argued that it had already entered a technical stage at which it can “miniaturize and diversify” nuclear bombs ― an argument that sparked calls to resume nuclear talks with the North.

“The most important priority at this time is to resume dialogue with the DPRK (North Korea) on the nuclear issue, and to reverse its nuclear armament. Not doing so is potentially catastrophic for the Korean Peninsula,” said Peter Hayes, executive director of the U.S.-based Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability.

“Moreover, the longer the ROK (Republic of Korea) and other parties allow the nuclear armament to continue, the harder and more dangerous the pathway will be for inter-Korean rapprochement and eventual reunification.”

For North Korean leader Kim, nuclear arms are critical tools to show off to the international audience his country’s military might, analysts said. For the domestic purposes, Kim can use the nuclear program to promote national pride and unity, they added, noting the North is highly unlikely to bargain away its nuclear arsenal.

To help change Pyongyang’s strategic calculations, Seoul is poised to use the North’s woeful human rights record. Seoul believes the sensitive issue could help pressure the North to return to the negotiating table, while some observers warned that the human rights issue could further complicate the already challenging denuclearization task.

Underscoring the need to use both “carrots and sticks,” Cho Bong-hyun, a senior researcher at the Industrial Bank of Korea, called on Seoul to employ a “two-track” approach under which Seoul maintains a tough stance over Pyongyang’s nuclear development while constantly exploring ways to bolster economic cooperation with it.

“Along with the application of pressure, Seoul also needs to seek cooperation with Pyongyang, which would help the North come forward for dialogue,” he said. “Seoul needs to mix carrots and sticks by offering concrete proposals such as providing energy and food aid, or help in the development of special economic zones.”

Some observers said that before Seoul seeks to reopen the six-way talks, it should first try to improve the inter-Korean relations so as to revive and speed up the hitherto dormant multilateral dialogue process.

For the inter-Korean dialogue to resume, Chang of the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies said that Seoul needs to recognize Pyongyang as a legitimate interlocutor rather than indicating that Pyongyang is one that will collapse or be absorbed into the South to achieve reunification.

“Seoul’s mention of reunification and its economic benefits has insinuated that it does not recognize the North Korean regime (as a legitimate partner). It rather hinted that the North may be absorbed into the South after reunification,” he said.

“For the talks to begin, each side should recognize the other side as a legitimate interlocutor. That is the basic prerequisite for dialogue.”

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)