The Korea Herald

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Inter-Korean relations at its best in 5 yrs: think tank survey

By KH디지털2

Published : Jan. 28, 2015 - 13:24

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The relationship between the two Koreas has been rated at its best in the past five years, with local experts anticipating tensions to ease further later this year, a private think tank said Wednesday.

According to the report by the Hyundai Research Institute (HRI), the peace index for Seoul-Pyongyang relations for the September-November period came to 44.1, the highest ever since the think tank first began conducting such studies in late 2009.

The numbers have been on a downtrend since late 2013. In the past year, they dropped to below 40, a level that signifies cross-border tensions.

The index ranges from 0 to 100, and higher numbers indicate better inter-Korean relations. An index ranging between 40 and 60 shows that the two neighbors face a mix of both cooperation and opposition, while an index ranging between 20 and 40 signifies heightened tensions.

A survey of 103 local experts also showed that the peace index for the December-February period is expected to increase further to 51.8, the report added.

Improvement in the figure was largely attributed to the growth of inter-Korean trade as well as heightened expectations for high-level talks. 

In the three-month period between June and August last year, trade between the two countries came to US$682.88 million, up 16.2 percent on-quarter from the previous $587.9 million, according to the HRI report.

Furthermore, in early October, a high-powered North Korea delegation made a surprise visit to South Korea to attend the closing ceremony of the 2014 Incheon Asian Games, and had agreed with South Korea's top security officials to hold another round of high-level talks.

The report, however, also took a cautious stance toward the improved ratings, as local experts still view the two Koreas as somewhat in a state of tension.

"It is necessary to go ahead with temporary plans, at the least, to help recover mutual trust and deliver our sense of sincerity in the matter," the report said, adding that halting the launches of anti-North Korean leaflets across the border may be one example.

The Korean Peninsula was divided in the aftermath of World War II, and the two Koreas have been technically in a state of war since the 1950-53 Korean War ended with a ceasefire, not a peace treaty. (Yonhap)