Toward the end of each year, the world’s mass media outlets compete to select top 10 news events. This contest is enough to excite general readers but not educational enough to show them the future trends in the world. Recently, the World Economic Forum published a kind of guidebook titled “Outlook on Global Agenda 2015.” This pamphlet lists 10 trends in the world: deepening income inequality, the persistent rise in unemployment, lack of leadership, rising geostrategic competition, the weakening of representative democracy, rising pollution in the developing world, the increasing occurrence of severe weather events, intensifying nationalism, increasing water stress, and the growing importance of health in the economy.

Using this kind of trend approach, I will classify major events in 2014. But I will choose them based on their degree of impact on the future of humanity and world peace. For this purpose, I have selected five criteria: impact on the international political order, the international economic conditions and order, the nation-state system, the natural environment and civilization as a whole.

First, is the international political order changing? If so, in what direction is it changing? One noteworthy event is that China will become the world’s largest economy in 2015. The IMF says that by the end of 2014 China’s GDP will be $17.6 trillion and America’s will $17.4 trillion. How will this affect the world order? Will a new bipolar system become a reality? If so, what kind of bipolar system will it be? Will the two fight for global hegemony or seek a new kind of great power relations such as a concert of powers? Or will a global collective security system become more feasible? How will the U.S., Western Europe and Russia react to this situation?

Second, what has happened to the global economic and financial order? In terms of wealth distribution, the gap between the Western developed world and the newly industrialized countries and the gap between the newly industrialized countries and the developing world are narrowing, while the gap between rich and poor within all countries is increasing. Mainly due to this trend and the accelerating economic globalization, the international economic and financial order continues to decentralize.

The G20 and BRICS are strengthening their influence in international financial institutions, while non-Western countries are diversifying international reserve currencies to weaken the U.S. dollar as the leading international reserve currency by demanding special drawing rights or a new world currency and creating diverse currency swap arrangements. The world trading and banking systems are also being decentralized: all kinds of regional and bilateral free trade agreements are mushrooming, while BRICS has established its own bank, the New Development Bank, and China has established the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank. Accordingly, the World Bank and the WTO are weakening.

Third, the nation-state system is going through more turmoil. Despite rapid globalization and all kinds of regional and global integration movements, the nation-state system based on the Westphalian consensus (each ethnic, racial or linguistic group is entitled to form a state and each state enjoys absolute sovereignty internally and externally) persists. Another principle of the Westphalian consensus is the separation of spiritual and temporal authority, but the Arab world rejects this principle and the pan-Islamic state movement challenges the Western nation-state system. But in the other parts of the non-Western world, states stick to the Westphalian model much more strongly than the Western world. The West holds that nation-states should compromise state sovereignty for universal values such as human rights, but the non-West rejects this.

The Western developed countries have experienced the least-violent domestic conflicts; the newly industrialized countries, less-violent ones; and the developing countries, the most-violent ones, while Arab countries are torn by violent sectarian conflicts or conflicts between temporal and spiritual movements. It is not surprising that Nigeria, South Sudan, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zimbabwe, Burkina Faso, Egypt and Libya in Africa and Syria and Iraq in the Arab world are going through violent conflicts. In contrast, Russia is dealing with its old imperial legacy. This semi-Western state is involved in conflicts with its former provinces Ukraine and Moldova.

Fourth, the issue of climate change still divides nations. Despite the fact that the issue is global, nation-states deal with it as a nation-state issue. The 20th session of the conference of the parties has ended without any significant breakthrough.

Finally, has humanity become more civilized? Civilization means the end of barbarism or irrational behavior. We all know that peace is the prerequisite for everything humanity cherishes, but humankind has not yet discarded barbarism. Because of this, people all over the world shout slogans such as “justice before peace,” “food before freedom” and “equality before prosperity.” Recently, to overcome barbarism 12 leaders of various religions met and adopted a joint declaration for the elimination of modern slavery and human trafficking by 2020. Shall we just pray for peace on earth or pledge to act on it on the eve of 2014?

By Park Sang-seek

Park Sang-seek is a former rector of the Graduate Institute of Peace Studies at Kyung Hee University and the author of “Globalized Korea and Localized Globe.” ― Ed.