The ongoing battle over next year’s budget bill between rival parties is expected to reach a climax this week as the deadline set by law approaches, forcing the two sides to finish their reviews.

According to the Constitution, legislators must complete their reviews by Dec. 2. Seldom have they met the date though, with this year’s partisan rows over tax hikes and education subsidies hinting at a repeat of the unconstitutional practice.

But a newly imposed law in 2012 could allow the governing Saenuri Party to unilaterally pass the budget before Dec. 2, over the opposition’s protests.

Two years ago, lawmakers enacted a clause in the National Assembly Act obligating lawmakers to forward the budget bill to a plenary session by Nov. 30. The move was intended to end the practice of endorsing the budget days past the Dec. 2 deadline.

Once the budget bill is forwarded, a vote can be taken. With the governing party holding 158 of the Assembly’s 300 seats, the Saenuri Party could bulldoze the budget bill through before Dec. 2. Last week, Saenuri chair Rep. Kim Moo-sung and floor leader Rep. Lee Wan-koo threatened to exercise such powers.

The new Nov. 30 rule also allows the Assembly speaker to designate a series of “budget-related” bills that will be forwarded to a full session along with next year’s spending plan.

The main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy, however, has accused the governing party of trying to sneak in a series of controversial tax hikes, under the pretense of passing the budget by early next month.

The draft bills include plans to increase cigarette taxes and a national residential poll tax, which NPAD lawmakers have been opposing on the grounds that such levies would hurt low-income earners the most.

On Sunday, a source close to the Assembly speaker said that a tobacco tax hike “is likely” to be picked as a budget-related bill. The source declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the issue.

But with the NPAD holding only 130 seats in the legislature, the party is helpless in blocking any unilateral move by the governing party over the budget, although it did successfully cut about 1.3 trillion won ($1.17 billion) from the government’s originally proposed plans, during committee-level reviews at the parliament.

In-house factionalism in the NPAD is also expected to hamper attempts to set up a last-line defense against the governing party’s strong-arm budget tactics. With the main opposition party’s national convention approaching in February, key candidates have begun steps to mobilize support groups within the party.

The opposition has been forced to rely on extreme tactics, including threats to conduct its second parliamentary boycott of the year if the governing party pushes the bills through.

The NPAD has also floated a compromise plan to the Saenuri Party, suggesting Dec. 9 as the new budget-approval date.

Analysts said a compromise budget could be possible when NPAD floor leader Rep. Woo Yoon-keun meets his Saenuri counterpart Rep. Lee on Tuesday.

From 1962 to 1987, South Korea’s military dictatorships swayed immense political power, making parliamentary opposition against the government’s proposed budget near-impossible. In 20 of the 26 years under military rule, lawmakers passed the budget before Dec. 2.

But since 1988, the year historians pick as the end date of junta rule in Seoul, the budget review process has rarely been smooth. Lawmakers have met the date only six times during the 26 years since. In the past 15 years, lawmakers have met the Constitution’s Dec. 2-budget due date only once, in 2002.

In 2012 and 2013, interparty rows have pushed budget approvals past midnight on Dec. 31, leaving the nation without a functioning spending plan for the first few hours of the year. Jan. 1 is the start of South Korea’s fiscal year.

Critics of the Saenuri Party say though, the parliamentary budget review process must be judged on whether lawmakers conducted a fair and thorough probe of the executive branch, not on whether it was passed by Dec. 2.

By Jeong Hunny (hj257@heraldcorp.com)