In the next few months, ASEAN and China must show the world they can find common ground, no matter how thin it may be. Their joint message must be clear: they can work and make progress together towards a binding code of conduct in the South China Sea. With such readiness, it would reduce the ill-feeling that has dominated the global media for the past two years.

China’s new Foreign Minister Wang Yi made a successful maiden visit to Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia and Brunei in early May. During the visits, he managed to calm ASEAN colleagues by demonstrating China’s willingness to engage ASEAN on the CoC negotiations. This will be done through the ASEAN-China Working Grouping on Declaration Of Conduct of Parties on South China Sea, which was set up a decade ago, and followed by the establishment of an Eminent Persons Group.

Interestingly, not all ASEAN countries see eye-to-eye with Jakarta and Bandar Seri Begawan, which supported China’s latest overture. Quite a few still advocate track 1 as the must-do step first because they view the track 1.5/track 2 as a tactic to buy time and to prolong the status quo on the ground. But it could also serve as a platform to discuss frankly with China issues that track 1 might not be able to take up. Therefore, to move the process ahead, some ASEAN members want to see the “synergy” between the track 1 and track 1.5/2 so that the two tracks work in tandem and interactively, not in parallel to each other. When ASEAN prepared the charter, a group of eminent persons was chosen and they came up with a complete draft in a year for approval by the leaders. It remains to be seen how these two tracks will proceed.

During Cambodia’s time as ASEAN chair, the regional body rejected China’s proposal of such an expert group even though it was amended to include all ASEAN members instead of conflicting ones as earlier envisaged. The willingness of Indonesia and Brunei to take up the idea is indicative of the current ASEAN chair’s unwavering effort to push for progress in the stalled ASEAN-China relations. Therefore, the remaining six months will be pivotal to build up trust to lay a foundation for the future CoC drafting process.

When the DoC working group met in Bangkok at the end of May, the CoC issue was discussed officially for the first time, under the item “other matters”. As the coordinator of ASEAN-China relations, Thailand was pleased and is now working hard to pave the way for more substantive meetings on Aug. 2 and 14 that have the potential to redefine ASEAN-China relations.

The first one would be a high-level meeting to identify priority areas in ASEAN-China relations. Both sides are concerned that due to the South China Sea disputes, international attention has been focused heavily on this sensitive issue submerging other dynamism of their relations. So this meeting will highlight and strengthen cooperation in economic and non-security issues.

Then Bangkok will host a preparatory foreign ministerial meeting in Hua Hin to forge common views and positions on the maritime disputes, which are harder to come by these days. Thailand feels that the upcoming Special ASEAN-China Ministerial Meeting at the end of August or early September in Beijing could kick off the much-delayed CoC process. It is also a good occasion for a so-called “family discussion” among the leaders.

In the past months, some ASEAN members made decisions without consultation with other members. The Philippines’ decision to submit its dispute to the U.N. tribunal without consulting ASEAN attracted opposition. Both Singapore and Thailand came out with statements saying it had nothing to do with the grouping’s view.

At the Joint Commission for Bilateral Cooperation Meeting in Manila last week, Thailand urged the Philippines not to allow the South China Sea conflict to hurt ASEAN-China relations. Although the appeal was a bit too late, it showed the high level of concern of Bangkok. Indonesia also went ahead on its own to support China’s idea of an experts’ group.

Therefore, it is incumbent on the Thai coordinator to attain a set of common understanding of the level of ASEAN commitments on the South China Sea in the years to come.

As such, ASEAN would like to see a document: it could be in the form of a joint statement or declaration, to be issued at the end of their summit with China in October before the East Asia Summit in Bandar Seri Begawan. The content would reiterate that ASEAN and China are striving to work on a CoC and settle their differences in the maritime areas among themselves without outside interference. The statement will also include a call for self-restraint and further commitment to adhere to the principles of international laws. At the upcoming ASEAN Regional Forum, Wang Yi still has one important task towards ASEAN ― he must convince the majority of ASEAN as well as ARF members that a rising China means a China that also abides by international laws.

All in all, Wang Yi’s trip left a strong impression that Beijing appeared more flexible than his predecessor, Yang Jiechi, who is now serving as a state councillor responsible for foreign affairs. As a whole, ASEAN is willing to give China the benefit of the doubt at this juncture. However, one ASEAN country strongly believes that China has only changed its form not substance. But Wang Yi’s charm offensive was good enough to generate a conducive atmosphere for Brunei, Indonesia and Thailand to convince their ASEAN colleagues that further exchanges with China will bring tangible results. After all, on the South China Sea disputes, China is standing alone. Both Russia and North Korea, the two traditional allies, have been mute.

There is no reason for Beijing to quarrel with ASEAN perpetually on this issue. To move on, China has reiterated that there must be meaningful implementation of the DoC first.

By Kavi Chongkittavorn

Kavi Chongkittavorn is a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University, and assistant group editor of Nation Media Group. ― Ed.

(The Nation/Asia News Network)