Cautious hopes for a turnaround in the military stalemate with North Korea have emerged as Seoul, Washington and Beijing are ratcheting up diplomatic efforts to calm tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

A turning point could come around Thursday, the founding anniversary of the North’s armed forces, or around the end of this month when South Korea and the U.S. end their annual Foal Eagle field exercise, observers said.
 
Seoul officials and experts said Pyongyang might consider setting off provocations such as missile launches around these dates. But depending on its political calculations, it could choose not to further escalate tensions here.

The North has indicated its willingness for talks with Beijing over the nuclear standoff, Japan’s Asahi Shimbun reported Saturday. A senior Chinese official such as its top nuclear envoy Wu Dawei could visit the North, the newspaper said.

Before the North conducted a third atomic test on Feb. 12, the Chinese envoy sought to visit Pyongyang, but failed to do so as the North rejected China’s offer of dialogue amid escalating nuclear tensions. Wu Dawei is to visit the U.S. this week.

To step up bilateral cooperation over North Korea issues, Seoul’s Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se is to visit Beijing and Japan this week. During his trip, he is to meet his Chinese and Japanese counterparts Wang Yi and Fumio Kishida.

“(Yun) plans to deliver a message that North Korea should not further escalate tensions by launching another missile,” a government source told media, declining to be named. “He will also discuss bilateral responses when peninsular tensions decrease.”

On Sunday, Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Jung Seung-jo and his U.S. counterpart Martin Dempsey reiterated their firm resolve against North Korea’s additional provocations. Dempsey came here earlier in the day as part of his three-nation tour including visits to China and Japan.

“The two JCS chiefs discussed the continuing North Korean threat in a serious manner. They reaffirmed the alliance has the capability and the will to respond to any kinds of provocative threats by the North,” Seoul’s JCS said in a press release.

Their talks came after they held the Military Committee Meeting last week. They initially planned to hold it in Washington but decided to do it through video teleconferencing to maintain a robust readiness amid North Korean nuclear threats.

The North Korean military continued to maintain the highest level of combat readiness at its strategic missile and artillery units. Bringing its war threat to a new level, Pyongyang issued the order to raise its posture on March 26.

The reclusive state has been seen preparing to launch intermediate-range Musudan missiles from its east coast.

Seoul is also closely watching the possibility of North Korea launching shorter-range missiles such as Scud missiles with ranges of 300-500 kilometers and KN-02 missiles with ranges of 120-160 km.

During a parliamentary session last Thursday, Kim Jang-soo, who heads the presidential office of national security, said the North appeared to have made “considerable preparations” to launch Musudan, Scud and Rodong missiles.

Meanwhile, Burwell Bell, a former commander of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, withheld his support for the transfer of wartime operational control, saying that talks over the transfer should be put off amid the North Korean threats.

According to the Washington-funded broadcaster Voice of America, Bell stressed the need to employ an active deterrence strategy to handle the provocative state, saying the deterrence efforts need to be led by Washington.

Since 2006, Bell had been an outspoken supporter of the OPCON transfer.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)