Communist Party chief Xi Jinping has surprised many with his actions domestically but few are betting on any drastic changes from him in China’s policy on and support for its ally North Korea.

Pyongyang’s latest rocket launch earlier this month has once again exposed Beijing’s lack of leverage over its rogue neighbor, and observers say Xi will opt for the status quo due to various factors such as domestic political pressures.

Retired American diplomat Don Keyser said Xi, having just taken over as China’s supremo, on Nov. 15, would want to avoid making big moves over a sensitive issue among the military’s top brass and an increasingly nationalist society.

North Korea is the only country China has inked a security treaty with ― in 1961 ― which compels them to provide military aid if either party comes under attack.

Among the hawkish elements in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), there is also a sense of pride in the military’s role ― together with the Soviets ― in helping the North fend off the Western-backed South during the 1950-53 Korean War.

Said Keyser: “For Xi Jinping, altering China’s policy in such a sensitive region, given the factors cited above, would be a non-starter. Indeed, a loser.”

Regional dynamics also matters, said observers like Singapore-based analyst Li Mingjiang.

He said Beijing also wants to keep Pyongyang as one of its few true friends, after seeing its southwestern neighbor Myanmar leaning further away from China with its democratic reforms since 2010.

“Beijing is seriously concerned Myanmar will become even more pro- West at the expense of Chinese interests. A Myanmar-style change in North Korea will be perceived as a much bigger loss for China,” said Professor Li.

Also, rising suspicions over the United States are fuelling China’s resolve to use its Communist ally as a “buffer” or strategic asset, said Keyser.

He said China may want to prevent any development that could lead to the collapse of the Kim regime, now helmed by third-generation leader Kim Jong-un. Such scenarios could present opportunities for the US and South Korean armed forces to move into the North and create a united Korea that could be hostile to China, said Keyser, a senior fellow at the University of Nottingham.

Analyst Scott Harold of the US-based think-tank Rand Corporation cited a belief in Communist China that liberalization of another Communist country would “constitute a loss for Beijing”.

“I do not see China as likely to change its North Korea policy any time soon,” he added.

Observers said China’s handling of North Korea’s rocket launch, which fired a weather satellite into space on Dec. 12, showed its North Korea policy would be one of continuity rather than change. Pyongyang, banned from developing nuclear and missile-related technology by the United Nations after it had previously carried out nuclear tests, sparked global anger and security fears with its latest move.

In the aftermath, China’s Foreign Ministry expressed “regret” at the development while its diplomats have also, again, opposed the U.N.’s attempts to punish its ally with more sanctions.

Some observers said Xi, who has raised eyebrows with his charm offensive to win public support, and with a concerted fight against corruption, should also tweak China’s North Korea policy. Li said Beijing’s support of the Kim regime “has always been a negative factor in influencing China’s international image,” as it is seen to have contributed to the success of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programmes.

“China’s North Korea policy has also impeded the development of its relations with the U.S., South Korea and Japan,” said Li, an analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

There is also a growing belief among some that Beijing is being held ransom ― perhaps unwittingly ― by Pyongyang.

Japan’s former Defence Minister Yuriko Koike said the North’s latest action showed its belief that “a more robust vision of national defense in Japan and South Korea would antagonize China, which, isolated in East Asia, will then be more likely to maintain its support for the Kim regime”.

“Thus, the missile launch can be viewed as an indication of how threatened the Kim dynasty feels ― the regime appears to believe that it must blackmail its closest ally in order to maintain its support,” wrote Koike in a Project Syndicate article last Friday.

So what can Beijing do?

Li said it could tell North Korea outright to stop its nuclear weapons program and embark on reforms or risk losing China’s political protection and economic assistance.

But Peking University’s Northeast Asia expert Wang Dong urged caution because “North Koreans are a tough people that do not easily cave in under pressure”. He said China understands sanctions and pressures alone would not bring the changes that the world wants, and could even infuriate the North Koreans.

“This will not only lose whatever ‘influence’ China might hold over North Korea but also make it more desperate,” he added.

By Kor Kian Beng

Kor Kian Beng is the China correspondent of the Straits Times in Singapore. ― Ed.

(Asia News Network)