By Sangwon Yoon


South Koreans go to the polls today to choose either a dictator’s daughter or a one-time dissident as president, both of whom pledge to reverse slowing growth, a widening income gap and deteriorating North Korea ties.

Ruling New Frontier Party candidate Park Geun Hye holds a 0.5 percentage point lead, within the margin of error, over former human rights lawyer Moon Jae In, according to the most recent opinion poll. A victory for Park, the daughter of the country’s longest-serving military dictator Park Chung Hee, would make her South Korea’s first female president.

"It’s anybody’s call,” said Hahm Chai Bong, president of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “At this point the turnout rate is everything. It’s not about convincing people on the other side, but just getting your voters, your supporters out there to vote.”

The winner will inherit an economy forecast to grow this year at the slowest pace since 2009, with fewer job prospects for younger voters and dissent over the power of the country’s conglomerates known as chaebols. North Korea’s successful rocket launch last week complicated both candidates’ calls for greater engagement with leader Kim Jong Un’s totalitarian state.

Almost 41 million eligible voters will cast their ballots from 6 a.m. until 6 p.m. local time, with the forecast for cold, partly cloudy weather. Turnout was 45.3 percent or 18.4 million at 1 p.m., the highest rate since 1997, the National Election Commission said. The victor will take office in February when President Lee Myung Bak’s five-year term ends.

Tight Race 

Support for Park stood at 48 percent compared with 47.5 percent for Moon, according to a Dec. 12 poll by the Seoul-based Realmeter and JTBC, a cable television affiliate of the JoongAng Ilbo newspaper. The survey of 2,000 respondents had a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. South Korea bans surveys from being published six days before the election until voting ends.

The level of turnout may decide who wins, according to analysts including Kim Ji Yoon, the Asan Institute’s director of public opinion studies. A turnout above 70 percent would indicate a large number of younger people going to the polls who are more likely to vote for Moon, she said.

“Underneath the political apathy and general lack of voter participation, younger voters tend to be moderate, undecided or generally veer left of center and support Moon,” Kim said. “If voter turnout is high, Moon has a definite chance against Park, who faces a more inherent difficulty in trying to convert their generally liberal political leanings.”

Voter Demographics 

In 2007, voter turnout was 63 percent, with voters in their 50s recording the highest participation rate of all age groups. The biggest bloc of voters is in their 40s, accounting for 21.8 percent of 40.5 million registered voters, according to the National Election Commission. Another 15.5 million voters are from age 19 through their 30s, while 16.2 million are over 50.

There’s little to separate the candidates’ economic policies. With voters demanding measures to reduce widening income disparity, Moon and Park have pledged to boost welfare spending, increase support for small-and medium-sized businesses and rein in the influence of chaebols.

While the 10 largest chaebols, including Samsung Group, account for more than half of the total market capitalization of the Korea Stock Exchange, the biggest 30 employ just 6 percent of the workforce. The nation’s richest 20 percent last year earned 7.86 times more than the bottom 20 percent.

Chaebol Challenge 

Moon has called for chaebols’ existing and new cross- shareholdings to be banned to reduce the risk of monopolies, while Park advocates letting existing shareholdings be left exempt to avoid a negative impact on the economy.

South Korea’s economy is forecast by the central bank to grow 2.4 percent in 2012, the weakest since 2009. The won has climbed 7.4 percent against the dollar this year, an advance that risks undermining export competitiveness. Stocks have risen, with the benchmark Kospi Index up 9.2 percent.

On North Korea, both candidates say they will unconditionally resume dialogue with Kim Jong Un’s regime. Moon said he will invite North Korean officials to his inauguration and hold summit talks with Kim by the end of next year. Park, while also willing to meet the country’s leader, is more cautious with promises of re-engagement, emphasizing the importance of national security and “dialogue based on trust.”

Park and Moon both called on North Korea to refrain from testing a long-range rocket, which Kim’s regime ignored with its Dec. 12 launch.

Park Link

The candidates’ careers are connected through Park’s father, who oversaw South Korea’s economic rise through the growth of automaking, steel and shipping and promoting the chaebols. Park senior took power in a military coup in 1961 and ruled until 1979, when he was shot dead by his security chief. Park Geun Hye served as her father’s first lady for five years from the age of 22, after her mother was killed in a North Korean attempt to assassinate the president.

Moon was jailed in 1975 for leading street protests against the Park government, and was then assigned to a front-line position in a special operations unit during his military service. He later served as chief of staff to President Roh Moo Hyun, who was in office from 2003 to 2008. (Bloomberg)



To contact the reporter on this story: Sangwon Yoon in Seoul at syoon32@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Peter Hirschberg at phirschberg@bloomberg.net