Following is the last in a three-part series of articles based on the assessment of the presidential manifestos by Herald Corp.’s expert panel. ― Ed.


Presidential candidates Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in pledge to employ a balanced approach toward North Korea and sharpen Seoul’s diplomacy to maximize its strategic interest.

But experts say the external policies of the Saenuri Party’s Park and Democratic United Party’s Moon could face hurdles as they do not appear to pay sufficient attention to crucial variables such as the North’s unpredictable, provocative behavior.

Herald Corp.’s manifesto review panel consisting of leading academics said that Seoul should map out a sophisticated strategy to cope with volatile security conditions on the peninsula and strive to gain domestic and international support to spur its policy drive.

The panel says Park’s policy on security and unification features stability rather than pursuing an abrupt shift from the current government’s policy, which could draw resistance from within the country.

“Her policy maintains the current policy line in relative terms, but seeks to improve inter-Korean ties in a step-by-step fashion. This looks realistic,” said Park Young-june, a professor at National Security College, Korea National Defense University.

Panelists also positively evaluated her policy to separate politics from Seoul’s humanitarian support for the impoverished state based on the recognition that the current administration’s strictly reciprocal policy had borne little fruit.

“Stopping the forceful repatriation (by China) of North Korean refugees and offering humanitarian support through a law on the North’s human rights are strategies to help gain international support and strengthen our rationale for unification,” said Yang Dae-jong of Wonkwang University Institute of Mind Humanities.

But panelists argue her policy should be complemented by some measures to respond to possible situations in which the communist state continues to be uncooperative or provocative.

“Seoul should prepare for the possibility that Pyongyang will not view Seoul’s policy positively and could reject inter-Korean dialogue through abnormal means,” said Cho Young-key, professor at Korea University.

“While respecting agreements (former governments signed with the North), there should also be clear criteria over what the next government should adopt or throw away. Seoul should focus on what can be applicable rather than setting too high a goal.”

On Moon’s policy, some panelists said his active approach toward the North underscores the extent to which he is keen on improving strained ties with the communist state.

“The merit of his policy is to seek bipartisan cooperation to meet the request of the times for reunification. His policy has relatively more details, which shows his desire for better relations with the North,” said Yang of Wonkwang University.

Some others, however, expressed concern that his policy is based on the optimistic expectation that Pyongyang would positively respond to Seoul’s policy, raising questions over its feasibility.

“His policy at large is full of optimism with regard to North Korea’s future course of action. It does not consider North Korea’s nuclear strategy and hostile outward policy,” said Cho of Korea University.

Cho also said that much caution should be taken when Moon pushes for his vision to realize a peninsular peace system.

“The peace system is related directly to the issue of forging a peace treaty, which in reality seeks to withdraw U.S. troops from the peninsula and dissolve the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command,” he said.

“This is explosive in its nature, which could bring about an abrupt change in the regional security landscape.”

At the core of Park’s North Korea policy featuring three principal goals of “durable peace, trustable diplomacy and happy unification” is what she has long reiterated ― a “peninsular trust-building process.”

To enhance bilateral communication and exchanges, Park has promised to establish representative offices of the two Koreas in both capitals. Her policy also involves a step-by-step process toward ultimate political unification, which proceeds in the order of inter-Korean trust building, the settlement of peninsular peace and then the forging of a unified economic community.

Having a more ambitious vision for inter-Korean economic cooperation, Moon has highlighted that economy, peninsular peace and security are all interconnected.

He pledges to forge an inter-Korean economic association, believing that the loosened form of unity will eventually lead to durable peace on the Korean Peninsula and, ultimately, national reunification.

On the candidates’ foreign policy, the panel pointed out that their policies do not involve any creative approaches, and lack details over how to push for their broad diplomatic visions.

The candidates concur that while maintaining the long-standing alliance with the U.S., South Korea should seek to enhance its strategic relationship with China.

Park Young-june of Korea National Defense University said Moon should work out a way to gain support from neighboring states for the policy change he envisions concerning North Korea.

Cho of Korea University also said that Park, for her part, needs to develop the rationale for her security and external policy to secure international support, highlighting that she has yet to present detailed ways to push for it.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)