North Korea’s successful long-range rocket launch on Wednesday thrust the issue of peninsula security into the center of next week’s presidential election in Seoul.

The surprise provocation could tilt the electoral balance in either direction, analysts say.

Rival candidates engaged in a blame game, with the Saenuri Party citing liberals’ leniency toward the nuclear-armed North Korea and the Democratic United Party trying to highlight the conservative incumbents’ intelligence and security inability.

The North’s launch, relevant to its intercontinental ballistic missile capability and thus garnering a wider international reaction, is also likely to focus attention on the next president’s ability to manage the tension on the Korean peninsula, they said.

Shin Yul, politics professor of Myongji University, suggested the heightened tension on the Korean peninsula would see the public heading to the polls with a reinforced sense of security.

“While provocations like those involving the Northern Limit Line in the West Sea can be used by the opposition to attack the North Korea policy failure of the Lee Myung-bak administration, a rocket launch is something that will intensify the tension through the international community and thereby makes it more difficult to be used in criticizing the incumbent government,” Shin said.

“It could pose more trouble for the Democratic United Party that promotes a friendly policy for the North as people’s hostility toward North Korea will increase,” he added.

Paik Hak-soon, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, on the other hand, disagreed.

“Basically, Seoul’s misled detection of the North’s rocket launch has offset the pros and cons for each party. The launch is providing good material for the opposition to attack the incumbent government’s security incompetency,” he said.

Alleged loopholes in the intelligence of South Korea were exposed following North Korea’s launch which came just a day after news reports of Pyongyang removing a section of its long-range rocket due to technical problems.

Paik, however, said the actual impact of the premeditated launch on the election in the South would not be too substantial.

The presidential candidates and their campaign teams, meanwhile, were visibly split in their reaction to the North’s successful launch. While both parties strongly condemned the North, the Saenuri Party criticized the DUP for “buying the North’s logic for a rocket launch,” as the DUP blamed the Lee Myung-bak administration for its “security incompetency.”

Saenuri Party presidential candidate Park Geun-hye strongly condemned the move as a provocation aimed to rattle the South.

“The people (of South Korea) will not budge an inch no matter how hard the North struggles to intervene in the presidential election and launch the missile,” Park said during her rally in Ulsan. “This is a provocation to the Republic of Korea and to the international community and the world,” she said, as her party held an emergency security countermeasures meeting with supreme councilors and chairmen of the National Assembly’s defense and intelligence committees.

“Another important topic of this election is how we should have the force with a definite vision of the state to lead the country…please choose the force with the definite vision of the state,” Park additionally said in Pohang, citing the DUP’s earlier alliance with the Unified Progressive Party which has been criticized by the conservatives as being pro-North.

Moon also strongly denounced the North, but at the same time condemned the government for failing to fully detect the launch schedule.

“I sternly oppose any action from the North that threatens the peace on the Korean peninsula,” he said in his visit to Cheongju, Chungcheong Province.

“These are clear shows of security incompetency of the ruling camp,” Moon added, also citing last year’s death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, which the government came to know upon the North’s announcement two days later.

DUP spokesman Park Yong-jin joined the fray by saying, “The people will not be giving the Saenuri Party, racked by intelligence and security incompetency, another five years of opportunity.”

Park has been highlighting her security policy focused on strong deterrence against any provocation and a solid alliance with the United States, represented by the plan to establish a national security office as a control tower and to build new trust in the region along with the North.

Moon, for his part, has been emphasizing that no casualties occurred in confrontations with the North during the former Roh Moo-hyun administration, for which he was the presidential chief of staff. He also pledges to ensure solid security and manage peace in addition to implementing economic cooperation projects agreed upon with the North.

By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.com)