North Korea’s successful rocket launch on Wednesday will plunge it deeper into international isolation, clouding the prospect of its improved ties with South Korea, the U.S. and other members of the international community.

Experts said the provocation was aimed at consolidating young leader Kim Jong-un’s power, appeasing military brass and uniting its populace with the monumental project. The communist country is also looking to raise the stakes in future relations with the U.S.

Pyongyang made the surprise launch defying the warnings by Seoul, Washington, Tokyo and others that it could face further sanctions for contravening U.N. Security Council resolutions against any use of ballistic missile technology.

“The Washington-Pyongyang relationship would considerably worsen given the U.S. has repeatedly sent a strong signal against the launch,” said Kim Ho-sup, international politics professor at Chung-Ang University.

“Though South Korean presidential candidates have pledged more engagement, the new president in Seoul may find it somewhat difficult to push for policy focusing primarily on dialogue and reconciliation.”

Observers and Seoul officials put more weight to internal politics for the reason that the North defied international warnings, considering that Kim Jong-un is in dire need of outside aid to enhance people’s livelihoods and consolidate its power.

The launch appears to have been intended primarily to mark the first anniversary of the death of former leader Kim Jong-il and of the fledgling leadership. The reclusive state hopes to rally its people behind the event, they said.

Some also argued that the launch could be, in part, meant to assuage military elites disgruntled over the recent moves by Kim to purge or demote conservative commanders.

On the international front, there might be other motives as well, experts said.

“North Korea is now back into the global limelight. Capitalizing on this, the North might be suggesting tacitly to Washington that normalizing ties with it is still a crucial agenda, and that other bilateral pending issues should be given keen attention,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

He also raised the possibility of the reclusive state conducting a third nuclear test or additional provocation should the U.N. adopt additional sanctions or escalate diplomatic pressure on it.

“Should there be new sanctions, the North may adopt a tactic to openly increase its uranium enrichment activities as a first step. Should pressure mount, it, as a second step, could carry out another nuclear test,” he said.

Pyongyang’s previous nuclear tests have followed long-range rocket launches. It fired a rocket in July 2006 and conducted the first nuclear test in October. Its second nuclear test was carried out in May 2009 after launching a rocket the previous month.

As the launch came just a week before the presidential vote in the South, some argue that the North has sought to help political forces here more favorable to its interest.

“It apparently seeks to send a message to South Korean voters that it is better to pick the candidate capable of more peacefully managing relations with Pyongyang. It is insinuating that inter-Korean tension could inflict various damage on the South,” said Ahn Chan-il, director of the World North Korea Research Center.

Whatever the reasons are, Pyongyang’s international isolation is expected to deepen.

The U.N. Security Council was to convene an emergency session in New York on Wednesday morning where member states were to discuss punitive measures to hold the North responsible for the provocation.

Above all, the launch could be seen as a slap in the face not only to the U.S. but also to China, the North’s greatest patron. Beijing’s Foreign Ministry had repeatedly warned that any provocative move that could undermine peace and security in the region.

China’s state Xinhua News Agency criticized the launch in a column, calling the North a “country having its own way” despite international opposition.

New Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping could see the North’s provocative move as an impediment to his efforts to tackle domestic challenges including political reform, income disparities, people’s democratic aspirations and corruption.

“Now is the time when Xi Jinping is poised to reset relations with Pyongyang. The rocket launch could become a crucial issue in the bilateral relationship,” said Chin Hee-gwan, unification professor at Inje University.

The rocket launch is also expected to further fray its ties with the U.S. whose president is poised to carry out a reshuffle of its foreign policy staff and refine its policy toward the North in tune with that of a new Seoul government.

“There has been a momentum for a positive shift in the U.S. policy toward the North as there is expected to be a change in foreign policy staff,” said Kim of Chung-Ang University. “My projection is that the mood for the U.S. to further squeeze and pressure the North could be building.”

The unfortunate development for Pyongyang is there is little appetite now in the U.S. administration to take “good-faith” measures as the North’s provocative behavior has eroded international confidence.

The launch came just eight months after Pyongyang backed out of the so-called Leap Day deal by launching a rocket in April, which Seoul and Washington claim was used as a pretext to test missile technology.

In Japan, the rocket launch is expected to further spur Japan’s rightward shift on the political spectrum.

“The launch is a good opportunity for the main opposition Liberal Democratic Party led by conservative Shinzo Abe, who is likely to return to Japan’s premiership following the Dec. 16 elections. It is, after all, a matter of how Japan’s political circles calibrate its strategic interest concerning the North,” said Lee Jung-hwan, assistant professor at the School of International and Area Studies of Kookmin University.

“It could be helpful during its election campaign given that the party has sought to have a collective self-defense right and bolster its military. The launch could be used in a way to strengthen their rationale for a conservative security stance.”

Lee also noted that, though chances are low, Japan could also opt to strengthen ties with the North to have a more influence over the wayward neighbor, which could help it build more diplomatic prowess in the regional dynamics of power.

Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura said, “The launch is very regrettable and can be condoned. We gravely protest it,” he told a press conference. He explained that the rocket flew over Okinawa, but no fragments fell into Japan’s territorial waters.

By Song Sang-ho (sshluck@heraldcorp.com)