By Choi He-suk
Opposition presidential candidate Moon Jae-in’s campaign hanged in the balance as his hopes of riding on the support of former independent candidate Ahn Cheol-soo had virtually evaporated on Monday.
On Monday, Ahn officially disbanded his election camp, and repeated his tepid call for his supporters to accept his will in backing the Democratic United Party’s Moon.
Much of his short speech was, however, given over to criticizing the ongoing campaigns saying, “things are going in the opposite direction to what the public wants,” and reiterating his intention to reform Korea’s politics.
With the so-called “Ahn effect” appearing likely to be limited, the focus is shifting to the steps the former independent candidate will take in the run up to the Dec. 19 presidential election.
“It was neither a declaration of support nor opposition. He criticized the whole campaign environment, and that contained criticism of Moon,” professor Yang Seung-ham of Yonsei University said. He added that Monday’s event seemed more to mark the launch of Ahn’s political career disbanding the election camp.
“I think the ‘Ahn Cheol-soo effect’ is over. If he was to properly support Moon, he should have formed a joint election committee or at least formed a coalition with Moon as an individual. But I think that there is a very little chance of that happening,” Yang said. Yang added that he expects about 40 percent of Ahn’s supporters to move over to Moon, 20 to 30 percent to Park and the rest forfeiting as things stand.
“Although Ahn could stage a surprise event (supporting Moon), I think he is fully aware that Moon is at a disadvantage and will use that to his advantage. If you look at next time (the presidential election in 2017), Park becoming the president this time is much more advantageous to Ahn.”
Since Ahn quit the race on Nov. 23, Moon’s approval ratings have slipped significantly with most polls showing him to be lagging by more than the margin of error behind Saenuri Party’s Park Geun-hye.
However, polls show that the gap is likely to be significantly narrowed or even turn in favor of Moon with Ahn’s support.
“I think (Ahn) has the intention to actively support Moon. The former candidate is a person who tries to keep his word, and he repeatedly stated that political reform is the most important value and that that begins with change of administration,” Yoon Yeo-jun, chief of Moon’s social integration committee, said in a radio interview on Tuesday.
“Comments of that level are unlikely to help much. In a way, Moon’s side may have neglected to take steps to enable Ahn to take a more active approach. The form the support takes is not very important. The issue is how passionately (Ahn) helps, not the form or the method.”
However, Ahn has so far only repeated his lukewarm comments.
“I told you that I will work for change of administration; also to support unified candidate Moon Jae-in. I believe that the supporters, who built the hope for new politics and administration change, will accept my will,” Ahn wrote on his Twitter account on Tuesday.
While pundits and the DUP try to gauge the “Ahn Cheol-soo” effect and guess Ahn’s next move, he is widely expected to wait until after Tuesday’s televised debate among Park, Moon and the United Progressive Party’s Lee Jung-hee to decide how he will support Moon’s campaign.
For its part, Moon’s camp continues to hold on to a generally optimistic outlook regarding recent developments.
“Support for Moon is rebounding after Ahn’s statement and following the declaration of support from various civic society figures including Lee Wae-soo, Cho Kuk and Kim Yeo-jin,” Rep. Woo Sang-ho, the communications chief for Moon’s campaign, said. Lee, a novelist, Seoul National University law professor Cho and actress Kim are well-known for their progressive political views.
However, the DUP does not appear blind to its need of Ahn’s support.
Woo said that the candidate who takes more than 50 percent of the votes will win in the coming election, and that relying only on DUP supporters will not be sufficient to achieve such figures.
(cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)