Independent runner Ahn Cheol-soo’s sudden withdrawal of presidential candidacy leaves the election as a two-way battle between conservatives and progressives.

With Ahn’s loyal supporters at a loss on where to direct their support, political pundits said that whether Ahn’s resignation would lead Democratic United Party candidate Moon Jae-in to gain an edge or face a backlash hinged on how well he manages to collaborate with Ahn in the remaining weeks.

In the shorter-term, observers predicted that the botched single candidacy negotiation was likely to favor ruling Saenuri Party presidential candidate Park Geun-hye as she tries to lure in disappointed moderate voters.

But as the confusion settles down, Moon is likely to enjoy a gradual rise in support, they added.

In the longer-term, the nation’s experience of a drawn-out process of single candidacy among the presidential candidates is likely to spark discussion on improving the current presidential election system, such as by regulating the deadline for pre-selection of candidates, they added.

“It remains to be seen, because (Ahn’s withdrawal) did not come upon their agreement, which may have failed to boost Moon or give Ahn’s supporters a justification to redirect their votes to Moon,” said politics professor Yun Seong-yi of Kyung Hee University.

He pointed to Ahn’s comments, “While the dream of new politics will be put on hold, I sincerely long for a new era and new politics,” as an example of lingering bitterness.

Their negotiation for a single candidacy had been fractious since their disagreement over the method of choosing the final opposition candidate.

“Ahn’s withdrawal could lead to a decline in a voter turnout. It will all depend on how Moon manages to stitch up (the fissures that occurred in the negotiation process). The priority is to show supporters them (Moon and Ahn) harmonizing.”

The best option for Moon would be to show Ahn that he will take meaningful steps to push political reform upholding Ahn’s ideas in order gain again his backing, Yun said. 

Moon and Ahn had also remained at odds over the key reform measures during their alliance talks, namely in adjusting the number of lawmakers’ seats or cutting back state subsidies. While Moon stuck by his idea of increasing the number of proportional representatives without decreasing the overall number, Ahn had remained adamant that the number of parliamentary seats should be smaller.

Yoon Pyung-joong, a political philosophy professor at Hanshin University, agreed Ahn still held the key.

“The key player will still be Ahn. … The single candidacy will help Moon, but it depends on how Ahn helps Moon in the future as to whether it becomes a huge or a moderate ‘plus’ for him.”

He added that Park would face a greater challenge if the liberal duo shows a collaborated approach with commitment to political reform.

Bae Jong-chan, managing director at Research&Research, suggested that Park would be the happiest of the three for the time being.

“In the short term, it is more advantageous for Park. First of all, a strong rival has resigned. Second, the hostility toward the opposition’s single candidacy has been aggravated. Moon and Ahn having engaged in a tug-of-war and (Ahn) stepping down will have an impact on the supporters,” Bae said.

“The crucial point is whether Moon will manage to absorb the supporters of Ahn … whether Ahn will help gather the votes of his strongest supporters, those in their twenties, during the campaign,” he added.

Choi Young-jin, a professor at Chungang University’s political science and international relations department, gave a similar outlook.

“It is possible for some of the votes of those in their 40s to turn their support to Park, while her sturdy supporters remain solid.”

“At this point, what is important is not how the single candidacy is wrapped up, but how they will persuade the people with their vision and policies to maximize their alliance,” he added.

To evaluations that Ahn’s withdrawal may have been a strategic one directed at the next presidential term, Choi said, “Rather, it appears more like a case of an independent candidate without political or administrative experience that faced his limits.”

Yun, meanwhile, suggested the boisterous process of developing the single candidacy will have a positive impact in the far future.

“There will be discussions and improvement suggestions on the systems of the presidential election and the nomination process, such as by setting an earlier deadline for the parties’ nomination and so forth.”

By Lee Joo-hee and Shin Hyon-hee
(jhl@heraldcorp.com) (heeshin@heraldcorp.com)