Envisioned merger of opposition candidacy is finally on track with independent Ahn Cheol-soo’s campaign hinting its intention this week to ally with the Democratic United Party’s Moon Jae-in.

But the path to a real deal remains littered with obstacles from their disparities on timing and methods, to nebulous vision for political reforms, and above all the vested interests within their ranks, experts say.

Advocates of the alliance are optimistic, however, given that candidacy amalgamations in past presidential elections overcame all hurdles and differences to score dramatic wins.

The DUP and Moon, who have been much more aggressive on the issue from the outset, have repeatedly called on Ahn to begin the discussions and has taken a number of steps that appear to aimed at meeting Ahn’s requirements for “true political reform.”

In response to Ahn’s earlier comments that he will only discuss the merger once “true political reform” has been achieved, a number of pro-Roh Moo-hyun individuals have distanced themselves from Moon’s campaign. In addition, the camp’s political reform committee has called on DUP’s leadership to step down as part of the measures.

“Let us begin dialogue without any conditions,” Rep. Woo Sang-ho, chief of public relations for Moon’s campaign, said on local radio. He added that the time is running out even if the process of selecting the single candidate is conducted only through opinion polls, suggesting that the DUP may be open to the method preferred by Ahn’s camp. The preferred method of Moon is said to be open primaries, and his camp has repeatedly stressed the need to complete the process before the final candidate registration on Nov. 25 and 26.

Ahn, on the other hand, is doing all he can to delay the process as long as possible. The independent candidate is sticking to his earlier position that the issue needs to wait until he has revealed his policies on Nov. 10.

“The thread can’t be tied to the middle of the needle just because there is little time,” co-chair of Ahn’s campaign committee Song Ho-chang said referring to the Korean proverb that means that everything needs to be conducted in the proper order.

Finding common ground with regards to the timing and method of merger, however, is not the only obstacle in the process.

One of which is the matter of funding the campaigns.

This year the ceiling on the campaign fund has been place at about 55.98 billion won ($51.33 million), and Moon has already raised 20 billion won through the Moon Jae-in Fund while Ahn has not yet launched a similar fund.

However, if Ahn is selected as the single progressive candidate, Moon’s fund raising may have been to no avail.

According Rep. Suh Byung-soo of the Saenuri Party, Moon’s fund can only be used by another candidate if the money is loaned, and called for the DUP candidate to return the money before discussing the Ahn-Moon merger further. 

“Unless the Moon Jae-in Fund was established to engage in multilevel financial business, returning the money before discussing unification would be maintaining decorum to the supporters,” Suh said at the election committee meeting on Wednesday. 

There is also the issue of government election subsidy, which Moon has put on the line in a bold move to counter a supposed Saenuri Party ploy to hamper an alliance among progressive candidates.

On Wednesday Moon announced that he will accept Saenuri Party’s call to revise the Political Fund Act, and that the bill and that regarding the extension of voting hours be processed together.

On Sept. 27, Suh lawmakers proposed a revision that stipulates that the subsidy will not be paid to a party whose candidate forfeits or if the final registration process is not completed by the candidate.

While the Saenuri Party has justified the proposed revision as a means to prevent wasting of government funds, it has been widely interpreted as being an obstacle for Moon in seeking a merger with Ahn.

As the merger issue gains momentum, if not progress, it is coming under increasingly heavy fire from the ruling party.

Saenuri Party’s Suh has referred to the developments from Ahn and Moon’s camps regarding the issue as “abusing the wish of the times that is political reform for gaining advantage” in the merger process.

For the Saenuri Party, Ahn and Moon merging their campaigns will result in its candidate Park Geun-hye having to face a rival with much wider support.

“(Candidate) unification is no more or less than a collusion to gain power,” Saenuri Party spokesman Lee Sang-il said at a recent press briefing.

Reiterating the emphasis Ahn has placed on political reform, he added that Ahn’s justification for running for office will lose credibility if the former academic becomes the unified candidate for the progressive bloc will result in

“The reason that (Moon) is reaching out for unification while criticizing Ahn’s political reform plans is that (Moon) thinks that that is the only means to revive the Roh Moo-hyun administration.”

While the ruling party is attacking the issue with increasing vehemence, two political forces forming an alliance to present a single presidential candidate has been a commonly used tactic for those seeking a regime change.

The tactic has been employed in three of the five presidential elections held since 1987, when direct election system was introduced. Successful merger or alliance was achieved on two of the three occasions, and both led to the victory of the unified candidate.

Although Successful mergers in the past have led to successful election campaigns, experts say that the effect of a merger may not be so clear cut this time around.

“About 40 percent of Ahn’s supporters are conservative, and their support would drop away (if the merger is in favor of Moon),” professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s department of political science and diplomacy said.

Concerns over the impact a merger will have also come from within the DUP.

“Even if (candidate) unification is achieved, beating Saenuri Party’s Park Geun-hye will not be easy as things stand as they do now,” DUP supreme council member Rep. Kim Han-gil told the local media citing survey results.

Saying that Ahn and Moon need to approach the matter on the foundations of mutual trust, the DUP lawmaker said that a smooth unification is the key to victory.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)