With 50 days remaining before the presidential election, the three major candidates are fighting a knife-edge race while their negative campaigns and clashes over an alliance put off debate on policies.

Support ratings have changed little for over a month, with Park Geun-hye of the Saenuri Party retaining a slim lead against Moon Jae-in of the Democratic United Party and independent Ahn Cheol-soo. In two-way mock races, all three continue to run neck-and-neck in their respective match-ups.

The three are competitively announcing their pledges but managing to gain little steam as voters struggle to weigh the differences.

Instead, political issues remain at center stage, the latest being the opposition’s demand for longer polling hours. Ahn recently joined in by demanding the voting time be extended to 8 p.m. from the current 6 p.m.

Also hanging over the campaigns is the potential alliance between Moon and Ahn. The speculation that they will merge has been a major topic of discussion since their presidential bid announcements.

Observers and campaign managers alike commonly view the alliance as inevitable in order for the opposition to go up against Park.

But it’s hard to imagine how they will do it.

“I never thought about losing,” Moon had said in response to a potential alliance with Ahn.

Ahn also showed determination by saying, “I have burnt down the bridge that I crossed over and I intend to go till the end.”

In 2002, then-candidates Roh Moo-hyun and Chung Mong-joon officially commenced merger talks on Nov. 3 upon the proposal by Roh. Their alliance, which broke up a day before the election, helped Roh move into Cheong Wa Dae.

Moon and Ahn remain at odds over political reform preconditioned by Ahn for the alliance, and each are going ahead with measures of their own making.

“In the course of proposing political reform measures, the differences between mine and that of Ahn Cheol-soo have been found. I believe we need a natural, opened and healthy debate on such measures,” Moon told the party’s general meeting Monday.

Ahn, meanwhile, underscored his “fresh” image in contrast to the established politicians.

“My heart ached at your comments that the politicians would only come during the election and never afterwards. Even after I become president, I will visit and hear you out,” Ahn told temporary construction workers he visited early on Monday morning.

The tension between them has also prompted retired politicians, opinion leaders and artists to urge a compromise.

Observers believe that under-the-table negotiation between the two sides will pick up before mid-November. Candidates must register to formally run in the race by Nov. 25-26.

Park, for her part, has stubbornly called for unity regardless of her opponents’ attacks on her controversial interpretation of history relating to her late father, former President Park Chung-hee.

Her latest campaign has been focused on appealing to the younger voters instead, sharing lunch with office workers and handing out popcorn and sodas at a local theater. She had even said at her father’s memorial service, “I wish to let my father go.”

But her unity efforts continue to backfire. Park’s appointment of former Democratic Party leader Han Gwang-ok to highlight unity was met with strong protest from her own campaign team for his past irregularities. The recent merger with the conservative minority Advancement and Unification Party may have expanded the party’s clout in Chungcheong Province, but invited more skepticism from critics for resorting to “outdated” power.

Negative campaigns are escalating all the while, with Moon constantly pummeling Park over her purported association with the Jeongsu Scholarship Foundation named after her parents. Although Ahn remains more reserved, his campaign has taken sides with Moon in on-going tit-for-tat disputes.

Park in turn continues to slam Moon over the alleged comments by former President Roh Moo-hyun disavowing the de facto sea border between the two Koreas in 2007.

“How can we depend our country on an opposition party that cannot give a clear answer to a matter related to security,” Park said at the party’s general meeting Monday.

Park’s campaign has also been upping the ante against Ahn by questioning his past purchases of apartments, issuance of bonds with warrants for his company, and the professor designation process for him and his wife by Seoul National University.

As the election outcome remains murky, the voter turnout is expected to hold the key to this year’s dead heat race.

The generational support, in particular, is more vividly divided than before. Those in their 50s, 60s and over generally root for Park, while the 20 and 30-somethings back Moon and/or Ahn.

It is crucial how much of their supportive electorate each candidate manages to get out to vote on the election day.

For the time being, the rivalry between Moon and Ahn is receiving the most attention.

Their race is so tight that the lead changes depending on how questions are asked in surveys. Fluctuation is also evident when the respondents are more closely categorized: from those unsupportive of Park to those unsupportive of the Saenuri Party (supportive of the opposition or are non-partisan).

A poll by Media Research and Chosun Ilbo showed Monday that 47.8 percent supported Ahn while 41.8 percent sided with Moon, with 10.4 percent not responding or remaining undecided. The question was, “Who do you support between Moon and Ahn if they were to compete against Park of the Saenuri Party.” Only the non-Park supporters were asked the question.

But when the non-Saenuri voters were asked the same question, Moon was slightly ahead of Ahn 45.1 to 44.9.

It was deemed that those who support the Saenuri Party but not necessarily Park preferred Ahn over Moon.

When the question was changed to who they thought had a better chance of winning against Park, 47.6 percent of the non-Park supporters chose Ahn over Moon (38.4 percent). Some 45.2 percent among the non-Saenuri supporters also chose Ahn over Moon (40.7 percent).

The question was then changed to “Who do you see more appropriate as the single candidate?” The results changed again, with 47.1 percent of non-Park voters and 49.0 percent of non-Saenuri supporters picking Moon over Ahn (43.7 percent and 40.7 percent respectively).

Such varying results were seen to show that the respondents better trusted Moon’s administrative capacity, Media Research said.

Those who supported the Saenuri Party but not Park accounted for 9.2 percent of the total. Those who supported the opposition party or are non-partisan but also in support of Park were 5.9 percent of the total.

The survey showed that more of the non-Park supporters preferred Ahn (57 percent) over Moon (26.6 percent), while more of the non-Saenuri supporters preferred Moon (47.6 percent) over Ahn (31.1 percent).

The support for Moon and Ahn in terms of the respondents’ age, region and job, meanwhile, was more clear-cut.

Moon led Ahn among those in their 40s and over 60s. He also came ahead in the Busan, Ulsan, South Gyeongsang and Chungcheong. Moon was also strong among self-employed businesspeople and blue-collar workers.

Ahn, on the other hand, fared well among those in their 20s, as well as among those in their 30s and 50s. He was favored over Moon in Jeolla Province by 5 to 20 percentage points, and also prevailed in Seoul, Incheon and Gyeonggi. Students, housewives and white-collar employees preferred Ahn over Moon.

By Lee Joo-hee (jhl@heraldcorp.co.kr)