The political regionalism that cuts the nation in a clear east-west divide may be losing steam, with voter interests going beyond regional boundaries and in the absence of iconic political figures.

For decades South Korean elections have been dominated by strong regional loyalties.

The Gyeongsang provinces in the southeast have long been the main conservative power base, while the North and South Jeolla provinces in the southwest have invariably backed the various versions of the Democratic United Party, the roots of which lie with the late President Kim Dae-jung.

This year, however, the divide appears to be weakening, with the conservative Saenuri Party’s Rep. Park Geun-hye seeing unprecedentedly high ratings in the Jeolla provinces.

In the most recent survey conducted by Gallup Korea, Park had 13 percent approval rating in Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces.

While the figure lags far behind those of independent Ahn Cheol-soo and Democratic United Party’s Moon Jae-in, who respectively have 43 percent and 27 percent support in the region, Park’s numbers are significantly higher than anything recent conservative presidential candidates have been able to achieve.

In comparison, in the 16th presidential election in 2002, Lee Hoi-chang of the Grand National Party, the predecessor of the Saenuri Party, received 3.6 percent of the votes in Gwangju, 4.6 percent in South Jeolla Province and 6.2 percent in North Jeolla Province.

In the following election in 2007, the figures rose for President Lee Myung-bak, also of the GNP, but at 8.9 percent, the figure fell far behind his national average of nearly 48.7 percent.

The fact that independent Ahn has such high ratings is something of an anomaly.

In contrast to Moon’s low approval rating, late former presidents Kim and Roh Moo-hyun received more than 90 percent of the region’s votes in 1997 and 2002.

Some see the phenomenon as a sign of waning regionalism.

“The regionalism is easing. This is a fortunate development, and as it should be,” professor Yang Seung-ham of Yonsei University said. He added that politicians who are able to divide the regions as clearly as former presidents Kim Dae-jung and Kim Young-sam are unlikely to appear in the near future.

He argued that the divide has never been one of ideology, as popularly believed, but one of power and economic benefits that comes with it, saying that the Gyeongsang region has had the upper hand over the Jeolla region due to the large number of presidents from the region.

Of the 10 presidents who have served since the establishment of the government in 1948, six were from the southeast, while Kim Dae-jung was the only one from the Jeolla region. In addition to outnumbering presidents from any other region, the six from the Gyeongsang provinces held power for a total of 44 years.

“Of course the parties have also made efforts to shed regionalism, they have been trying to transform from local parties to national parties,” Yang said, citing the example of key Saenuri and DUP lawmakers running for office in the other party’s strongholds in April’s general elections.

In April, the DUP’s Kim Boo-kyeom ran in Daegu while Park’s communications chief Lee Jung-hyun ran in Gwangju. Traditionally Gwangju is a stronghold of the DUP, while Daegu is the home to some of the staunchest supporters of the conservatives.

While both failed to win a seat in the National Assembly, the attempt is seen as being symbolic of the parties’ efforts to break out of their traditional boundaries.

“In addition, Honam was able to resolve some of the issues under the Kim Dae-jung administration, and learn in the following administration that giving unquestioned support to the DUP will not bring many benefits to their home towns.” Honam is a term that refers to Gwangju and the North and South Jeolla provinces.

However, Yang said that there are also short term causes behind the changes seen in conservative and progressive candidates’ approval rating in the Jeolla region.

“Firstly, both opposition candidates (Ahn and Moon) are from Busan, so neither has strong regional ties, but Park also has the right characteristics to attract voters in the region. Park is coming up with reform policies, which can generate approval from Honam people, Park has made a left-click from the right towards moderate,” Yang said.

“In such aspects, Park has made the conditions that can win support in the region. She will gain more votes (from the region) than any previous conservative candidate. This is also an opportunity to break away from regionalism.”

However, the relatively high support Park Geun-hye is gaining in the Jeolla provinces is not seen as a sign of fundamental change by all.

“This is not a fundamental change in the regional (political) colors. This (Moon’s low ratings in the region) is hostility towards Roh Moo-hyun,” professor Shin Yul of Myongji University’s department of political science and diplomacy said.

Although Roh was elected into office with overwhelming support from the Jeolla provinces, he did not concentrate investment or favors to the region that played a crucial role in his election unlike previous presidents.

Among others, Rep. Lee Hae-chan ― who served as prime minister under Roh ― refusing to start work on the Jeolla line of the high speed KTX network, and the special counsel investigation into the financial aid given to North Korea under the Kim Dae-jung administration have been taken as a slight by the staunch DUP supporters of the region.

The investigation led to a number of high-profile politicians including DUP floor leader Park Jie-won serving prison terms.

In addition, the increasing influence of individuals with close ties to Roh within the party has been seen as exclusion of pro-Kim Dae-jung individuals. The sentiment has created a schism within the party, and has resulted in a number of senior figures with ties to Kim Dae-jung, including Han Gwang-ok, joining forces with Park Geun-hye.

“As long as Saenuri Party exists, it can’t overcome regional issues in the Jeolla provinces, because of the Gwangju massacre. That was a major event, and the regionalism in Gwangju and the Jeolla provinces are based on that historical fact,” Shin said.

On May 18, 1980, a democratic movement occurred in Gwangju and the military junta led by former President Chun Doo-hwan deployed Army troops to suppress the demonstrations. The incident resulted in hundreds of civilians dying or going missing, and thousands of people being injured. Chun, who was in office from 1980 to 1988, had taken power in 1979 in a coup that deposed of the commanders of the martial law enforced after the assassination of President Park Chung-hee in October of that year.

“One must remember that regionalism and political regionalism are different, and it was the contest between Park Chung-hee and Kim Dae-jung in 1971 that led to political regionalism being amplified,” Shin said.

In 1971, Kim Dae-jung ran against Park Chung-hee in the presidential election as the opposition leader.

Park Chung-hee’s campaigners combined McCarthyism with regionalism to counter Kim Dae-jung’s surprisingly high popularity and to attack some of his campaign pledges.

At the time, Park Chung-hee supporters argued through the media that Kim Dae-jung was unfit to lead the country and that his focus on the Jeolla region made him suitable only to be “president of Honam.”

In addition, Kim’s pledge to abolish the military reserve force was strongly opposed by the militaristic administration to the point that the then Minister of National Defense issued a statement saying “abolishing the reserves is an act to benefit the enemy, which facilitates and induces Kim Il-sung’s invasion of the South.”

Shin predicted that this history meant that Park would be unable to hold onto her support in the region until the election.

“(The rise in support for Park Geun-hye) is not caused by the lack of the candidate’s (Moon) ability to garner support. Although Park Geun-hye has higher support, the figures won’t be much different (from past elections) come voting time,” Shin said.

“(Due to the 1980 Gwangju incident) even supporting Saenuri Party is seen as betraying one’s home. Jeolla provinces’ hostility towards the conservatives is based on historical facts, but the dislike the Gyeongsang provinces have for Honam is not based on fact but emotion, the two are fundamentally different.”

By Choi He-suk  (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)