The Korea Herald

피터빈트

No clear front-runner in presidential race: polls

By Korea Herald

Published : Oct. 16, 2012 - 19:42

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With two months left until the Dec. 19 presidential election, polls still indicate no clear front-runner. But Saenuri Party candidate Rep. Park Geun-hye showed some gains despite recent controversy over her historical views and appointments that widened divisions within the ruling party.

A poll conducted from Oct. 12 to 14 suggested that Park has recovered some ground, outstripping Rep. Moon Jae-in of the main opposition Democratic United Party and independent Ahn Cheol-soo.

In hypothetical two-way contests, Park gained a lead of 1.7 percentage points against Moon and 1.8 points over Ahn.

Conducted by the polling agency Research and Research and commissioned by the Asian Institute for Policy Studies, the survey of 1,045 respondents has a margin of error of 3.1 points.

Park trailed the two rivals in the previous poll within the credibility interval.

A poll by Gallup Korea surveying 1,551 respondents from Oct. 8-12 also found that Park took leads of 1 point and 5 points over Ahn and Moon in respective two-way matchups.

Park tied with the two contenders in a poll conducted from Oct. 4-5 just after the Chuseok holiday.

Park’s comeback was most evident in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province ― commonly called the “TK bloc” by political pundits ― where Park has traditionally enjoyed strong support, as well as Gangwon Province.

Park also made notable gains among voters in their 20s. Compared to the earlier poll, Park made a 5-point gain among the young voting group while Ahn lost 8 points. But among voters in their 30s, Park lost 5 points while Moon gained 4 points.

A poll by Realmeter conducted during the same period found that Ahn widened his lead over Park by 7 points, with 49.8 percent vs. 42.8 percent. The poll surveyed 3,500 eligible voters and has a confidence level of 95 percent with a margin of error of 1.6 points.

In the survey, Moon was found to have a 4-point lead over Park in a two-way race.

The differing polls indicate that if the trio were to clash in December, Park would likely clench the presidency as Moon and Ahn would split the votes among the young and the liberal-leaning voting bloc.

In the Realmeter survey, Park maintained a comfortable lead in a three-way race with a 35.2 percent approval rating against Ahn’s 21.2 percent and Moon’s 21.8 percent.

The Gallup poll also showed that Park enjoyed a 40 percent support rating over Ahn’s 25 percent and Moon’s 22 percent.

By Samuel Songhoon Lee (songhoon@heraldcorp.com)